SEIR Mathematical Model of Convalescent Plasma Transfusion to Reduce COVID-19 Disease Transmission

Abstract

In some diseases, due to the restrictive availability of vaccines on the market (e.g., during the early emergence of a new disease that may cause a pandemic such as COVID-19), the use of plasma transfusion is among the available options for handling such a disease. In this study, we developed an SEIR mathematical model of disease transmission dynamics, considering the use of convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT). In this model, we assumed that the effect of CPT increases patient survival or, equivalently, leads to a reduction in the length of stay during an infectious period. We attempted to answer the question of what the effects are of different rates of CPT applications in decreasing the number of infectives at the population level. Herein, we analyzed the model using standard procedures in mathematical epidemiology, i.e., finding the trivial and non-trivial equilibrium points of the system including their stability and their relation to basic and effective reproduction numbers. We showed that, in general, the effects of the application of CPT resulted in a lower peak of infection cases and other epidemiological measures. As a consequence, in the presence of CPT, lowering the height of an infective peak can be regarded as an increase in the number of remaining healthy individuals; thus, the use of CPT may decrease the burden of COVID-19 transmission.

Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand

“…The simplest and most popular fundamental model is the SIR model [ 16 , 17 , 18 ], which describes the change in population in the system through differential equations by dividing the population into three classes: susceptible class , infected class , and recovered class . A more complex model is also available where populations are grouped into multiple statuses with increased disease control factors, such as vaccination control [ 19 ] and convalescent plasma transfusion [ 20 ]. In 2020, Din et al [ 21 ] developed a mathematical model for COVID-19 in Thailand which divided the population into six classes, namely, the SLIQHR model.…”

“…They studied the latent population, which is an asymptomatic group, but vaccination control was not considered. In 2021, Husniah et al [ 20 ] demonstrated the SEIR model of convalescent plasma transfusion as a control to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The effect of convalescent plasma transfusion helps to increase patient survival [ 20 ].…”

“…In 2021, Husniah et al [ 20 ] demonstrated the SEIR model of convalescent plasma transfusion as a control to reduce the spread of COVID-19. The effect of convalescent plasma transfusion helps to increase patient survival [ 20 ]. In 2022, Intarapanya et al considered the spread of COVID-19 in Thailand due to immigration, using a model referred to as LUSIHR [ 22 ].…”

Multiple Strategies as Optimal Control of a Covid-19 Disease With Quarantine and Using Health Masks

“…The 𝑆𝐼𝑅 compartment mathematical model was presented by Kermack and McKendrick in 1927 as the first epidemic model [18]. Further, it become the foundational model in research on the transmission of COVID-19, and the mathematical concept involved in Kusumo et al [19], Husniah et al [20], Kurniawan et al [7], Sihotang et al [21], Fatmawati et al [22], Husniah et al [23], and Nuraini et al [24]. Then, a quarantine policy and isolation are used to design a mathematical model by Manaqib et al [8], Ali et al [9], Batista et al [10], Musafir et al [11], and Khan et al [12], to investigate the spread of the corona disease.…”

Optimal Control Mathematical Model of Covid-19 With Social Distancing and Therapy Effect Strategies

“…The greater value of the parameter of PSBB is given, the faster the COVID-19 disease will disappear. [8] construct a mathematical model related to COVID-19 disease to determine the effectiveness of convalescent plasma therapy without distinction among mild, severe, and critical infected people. The result showed that the effect of giving convalescent plasma therapy could reduce the spread of COVID-19 disease.…”