Seismic hazard and total risk analyses for large dams in Euphrates basin, Turkey

Tosun, Hasan; Zorluer, İsmail; Orhan, Ahmet; Seyrek, Evren; Savaş, Hasan Basri; Türköz, Murat

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2006.10.003

Cited by 54 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…The original TRF method for earthquake risk analysis is expressed as [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] TRF = [(CRF + HRF + ARF) + DHF] × PDF.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Chen¹,

Lin²

2018

Water

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Dams and reservoirs are useful systems in water conservancy projects; however, they also pose a high-risk potential for large downstream areas. Flood, as the driving force of dam overtopping, is the main cause of dam failure. Dam floods and their risks are of interest to researchers and managers. In hydraulic engineering, there is a growing tendency to evaluate dam flood risk based on statistical and probabilistic methods that are unsuitable for the situations with rare historical data or low flood probability, so a more reasonable dam flood risk analysis method with fewer application restrictions is needed. Therefore, different from previous studies, this study develops a flood risk analysis method for large dams based on the concept of total risk factor (TRF) used initially in dam seismic risk analysis. The proposed method is not affected by the adequacy of historical data or the low probability of flood and is capable of analyzing the dam structure influence, the flood vulnerability of the dam site, and downstream risk as well as estimating the TRF of each dam and assigning corresponding risk classes to each dam. Application to large dams in the Dadu River Basin, Southwestern China, demonstrates that the proposed method provides quick risk estimation and comparison, which can help local management officials perform more detailed dam safety evaluations for useful risk management information.

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“…The original TRF method for earthquake risk analysis is expressed as [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15] TRF = [(CRF + HRF + ARF) + DHF] × PDF.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Total Risk Analysis of Large Dams under Flood Hazards

Chen¹,

Lin²

2018

Water

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“…Deterministic seismic hazard analysis was performed by the computer program DAMHA, which was developed at the Earthquake Research Center, Eskişehir Osmangazi University. Most of large dams in Turkey were analyzed by the authors in previous studies (Tosun andSeyrek, 2006, 2009;Tosun et al, 2007;Seyrek et al, 2009). …”

Section: Seismo-tectonics Model and Seismic Hazard Of Dam Sites In Thmentioning

confidence: 99%

Total risk analyses for large dams in Kizilirmak basin, Turkey

Tosun

Seyrek

2010

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Dams located near urban areas have a high risk potential for life and property in downstream. Turkey is one of the most seismically active regions in the world and has at least 1200 large dams with different type. Major earthquakes with the potential of threatening life and property occur frequently here. Kizilirmak basin studied in this article is located in a seismically very active part of Turkey. The northern part of basin is structurally cut by a significant fault system. The shear zone, which is frequently jointed, fractured and faulted at the central part of basin increases total risk of dams within the zone. Consequently, there are so many large dams, which are located close to these faults in the basin. In this paper authors summarize the methods used for the analysis of total risk, discuss the seismic hazards of 36 large dams constructed in the Kizilirmak basin on the basis of the seismic activity of the dam site and their total risk as based on physical properties and the position in the basin. The seismic hazard analyses have indicated that peak ground acceleration changes within a wide range (0.09 g and 0.45 g) for the dam sites of basin. The total risk analyses depending on the seismic hazard rating of dam site and risk rating of the structure have concluded that 23 large dams have high-risk class in the basin.

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“…Characterization of seismic activity and temporal distribution of earthquake recurrence. (Kramer, 1996) DSHA and PSHA have been performed by different researchers in specific sites according to their project goals and importance (Chandler et al 2001;Fat-Helbary and Tealb 2002;AlHomoud, 2003;Ardeleanu et al 2005;Simeonova et al 2006;Orhan et al 2007;Nakajima et al 2007;Tosun and Seyrek, 2006;Tosun et al 2007;Seyrek and Tosun, 2011).…”

Section: Maximum Design Earthquake (Mde) or Safety Evaluation Earthqumentioning

confidence: 99%