Seismic hazard and total risk analysis for cascade dams situated in geologically sensitive regions

Abstract

A modified version of a seismic risk assessment method is presented that generalises original risk analytical processes, constructs interrelationships among hazard variables in pre-assign weight-based formats, and establishes priorities to address potentially vulnerable dams. The concerned parameter values contained in each component are labelled based on adjusted grading standards, respecting the regional difference in hydraulic structure attributes and safety acceptability ranges. The cascade dams in Dadu River, China, are selected to test the applicability of the proposed method. We systematically investigate potential seismic hazards to demonstrate the implications of earthquake on dam safety. The results indicate that the adapted parameter ranges correspond with the physical aspects of the dams and potential social-economic consequences in geologically sensitive regions. Correspondingly, the hazard recognition levels accommodate their local near-source earthquake conditions. Moreover, the investigation guides local emergency services with warnings of potential dam damages and ensuing floods when encountering critical earthquake shaking.

Risk Management of Large Dams under Operation Stage and Case Studies for Cascade System

“…The author first mentioned this problem in ICOLD symposiums held in Prague and Chania in 2017 and 2019, respectively [37,38] and in a recent study published in an international book project [39]. This problem was also considered by some scientists from east-south Asia [40,41].…”