Seismic hazard estimation of northern Iran using smoothed seismicity

Khoshnevis, Naeem; Taborda, Ricardo; Azizzadeh-Roodpish, Shima; Cramer, Chris H.

doi:10.1007/s10950-017-9645-5

Cited by 19 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The minaret is located in a high seismic zone in the Iranian seismic code of Practice (IS 2800) [37]. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) macro-zonation of the north of Iran was done by Khoshnevis et al [38] for two hazard levels. According Fig.…”

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Safety Assessment Of Minaretmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-hazard reliability assessment of historical brick minarets

Pouraminian

2021

J Build Rehabil

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Historical brick minarets are the main elements of Iranian architecture and exist throughout Iran in different dimensions and heights. In this paper, the structural behavior of the Gaskar brick minaret, in the north of Iran, with a height of 16.11 m, has been studied against wind and earthquake hazards. Accurate discretization of finite element (FE) model of the minaret is performed to achieve accurate structural results. Then the wind load (WL) and earthquake load demand are determined according to the national building regulations, and technical literature then applied to the structure. Macro modeling strategies were utilized to modeling the masonry materials environment. Nonlinear properties are also assigned to masonry materials. The equivalent static WL is considered according to national building regulations. Three strong ground motion earthquake records are considered as seismic loading. In order to probabilistic seismic safety analysis of minaret, the load-resistance method was used for reliability analysis. The elasticity modulus, tensile and compressive strength of materials used as random variables generated by Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) for 10% coefficient of variations. Peak displacement response (PDR) of the minaret as implicit limit state (LS) function is determined under far-field ground motions. The seismic reliability index (RI) is quantified using the design of experiment (DOE) due to its time-consuming computational costs. The results showed that the minaret is safe against design WL and loading of the strongest wind recorded in the world. The seismic reliability results indicate that the minaret is at risk of slight damage.

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Section: Probabilistic Seismic Safety Assessment Of Minaretmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…13 Seismic macro-zonation hazard of North of Iran ( Adopted from Ref. [38]) years), peak ground acceleration for minaret site equal to A = 0.38 g. Earthquake records scaled to standard design response spectrum at Sa(T 1 = 0.28 s) according to IS 2800. In Fig.…”

Section: Probabilistic Seismic Safety Assessment Of Minaretmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-hazard reliability assessment of historical brick minarets

Pouraminian

2021

J Build Rehabil

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“…Seismic source model, including source geometry and earthquake occurrence rates, and Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) are two main components of PSHA, which play a major role in the Probability of Exceedance (POE) of ground motion parameters at any given site. In the common practice of PSHA, a catalog of historical and instrumental earthquakes is used for the identification of seismogenic sources and quantifying the earthquake occurrence rates (Ghodrati Amiri et al 2003, Shabani and Mirzaei 2007, Abdollahzadeh et al 2014a, Khodaverdian et al 2016b, Khoshnevis et al 2017. Due to the limited number of largemagnitude instrumentally recorded earthquakes and lack of historical evidence for all faults, rates of large-magnitude earthquakes are usually extrapolated from rates of small-to-moderate ones in the prevalent PSHA (Ward 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Up to now, several researchers have built PSHA models for the Iranian Plateau with different assumptions (Shabani and Mirzaei 2007, Abdollahzadeh et al 2014b, Khodaverdian et al 2016b, Khoshnevis et al 2017. Khodaverdian et al (2016b) built a catalog-based seismic hazard model for Iran using the smoothed seismicity approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for Iran

Lotfi

Zafarani²,

Khodaverdian³

2022

Bull Earthquake Eng

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Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, as the most prevalent approach to evaluate earthquake hazard, is commonly based on earthquake catalogs. Although previous studies show that the recurrence time of large-magnitude (Mw > 7.0) events in Iran is more than ~1000-2000 years, the available instrumentally recorded earthquakes are limited to less than 100 years. With the idea of having another proxy for seismicity rates, we propose a methodology to evaluate activity rates from strain rates in a combination of regional estimates of  and max m .Considering the comprehensive deformation model of the Iranian Plateau, we found that the deformation-based occurrence rates are more than the catalog-based occurrence rates in all seismotectonic provinces in the Iranian Plateau. Except for Central Iran, the ratios of the deformation-based to the catalog-based occurrence rate are between 1.21-3.95. For the first time, a probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for the Iranian plateau is also developed and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values for 10% and 2% POEs in 50 years are estimated. The highest levels of PGA are found in the Azerbaijan and Alborz seismotectonic provinces, where the highest value of strain rates is located. The spatial averages of PGA with 10% POE in 50 years from the deformation-based model are up to 30% higher than the results of a traditional probabilistic seismic hazard for almost all provinces except the Zagros region.

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“…Several parameters contribute to the need for special attention to this natural risk, including the active tectonic conditions, the presence of faults, and numerous seismogenic sources, along with the high population density in areas susceptible to the earthquake (Zaré et al, 1999;Uyanık, 2015). Given the above-mentioned seismic conditions regarding the Iran plateau, many studies have extensively focused on this area (e.g., Nowroozi, 1996;Shoja-Taheri, 1984;Nogol-Sadat, 1994;Jackson at al., 1995;Tavakoli, 1996;Mirzaei et al, 1998;Berberian & Yeats, 1999;Zaré & Memarian, 2000;Masson et al, 2006;Ansari et al, 2009;Karimiparidari et al, 2011;Hamzehloo et al, 2012;Mojarab et al, 2013;Khoshnevis et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seismic zoning of Tabriz area by stochastic finite fault model considering site-specific soil effects

Alamdari¹,

Dabiri²,

Jani³

et al. 2021

S&R

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Tabriz, as one of the most earthquake-prone cities in the Iran plateau, has experienced enormous earthquakes that have even destroyed the city altogether. Considering this seismological background and the vicinity of Tabriz's northwestern fault, reducing the possible earthquake losses can be highly useful by scrutinizing the strong ground motion resulting from the fault activation. To this end, a stochastic finite-fault ground motion simulation (EXSIM) method was applied as an important means for predicting the ground motion near the epicenter of the earthquake. EXSIM is an open-source stochastic finite-fault simulation algorithm that generates the time-series of the earthquake's ground motion. Based on the findings, the peak horizontal acceleration reached 0.83 g in the northern parts by creating artificial accelerograms and Tabriz's seismic zonation. In comparison, it reduced by 0.48 g by departing from the fault in the city's southern parts. Additionally, providing a seismic zonation map in Tabriz revealed that stopping the construction in the north parts while extending the settlement construction to the south part of the city are considered vital and unavoidable. Also, by applying the magnification and effects of the soil layers above the bedrock, it was further found that the existence of the loose layer with low strength and compaction intensify the application of seismic acceleration on the near-surface structures in the central, west, and southwest parts of the target area.

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Seismic hazard estimation of northern Iran using smoothed seismicity

Cited by 19 publications

References 53 publications

Multi-hazard reliability assessment of historical brick minarets

Multi-hazard reliability assessment of historical brick minarets

A probabilistic deformation-based seismic hazard model for Iran

Seismic zoning of Tabriz area by stochastic finite fault model considering site-specific soil effects

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