Seismic risk assessment in transboundary areas: the case study on the border between Italy and Slovenia

Polese, Maria; Tocchi, Gabriella; Dolšek, Matjaž; Babič, Anže; Faravelli, Marta; Quaroni, Davide; Borzi, Barbara; Prota, Andrea

doi:10.1016/j.prostr.2023.01.017

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Such a KL was selected as the lowest one because it is based on very limited data while still representing a realistic scenario. It combines the treatment of the seismic hazard used in a previous study of seismic risk [5] and the availability of floor-area data observed for Austria [44].…”

Section: Methodology For the Estimation Of Bias In Loss Estimation Fo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Bias in the Estimation of Seismic Risk for Municipal Building Stocks Due to Limited Data

Babič,

Žižmond,

Dolšek

2023

Buildings

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This study investigated the effect of the building data knowledge level on seismic risk estimation for municipal building stocks, focusing on identifying the characteristics that influence loss estimation bias. Fifteen municipalities in two Slovenian regions were analysed using twelve building data knowledge levels, defined by combining different knowledge levels about building location and floor area. The knowledge levels ranged from those using data aggregated at the municipality level to those using building-specific data. The bias was quantified as the log residual between the expected annual losses estimated for the given knowledge level and the base-case level, characterised by building-specific data. The results indicate that loss estimation bias is affected by both the building location and floor-area knowledge levels. The data on building density distribution across the municipality and building-class-specific floor areas are sufficient for estimating loss with low bias with respect to the base-case level. The effect of potential data improvement on bias reduction can be assessed using building stock homogeneity and hazard variation indexes determined from readily available data. Further research is needed to explore loss estimation bias for building data knowledge levels not considered in this study and generalise the concepts to other regions and building classifications.

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Section: Methodology For the Estimation Of Bias In Loss Estimation Fo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the knowledge available about the building stock is usually less comprehensive. It is much more common that only aggregated building data are readily available for use in seismic risk assessment (e.g., [5]). In such cases, additional bias can be introduced into the seismic risk estimation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bias in the Estimation of Seismic Risk for Municipal Building Stocks Due to Limited Data

Babič,

Žižmond,

Dolšek

2023

Buildings

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“…For instance, the 2020 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM2020, [10], [11]) is adopted as the seismic hazard model, as it encompasses all cross-border countries involved in the project and allows to overcome issues related to differences in seismic hazard models of each country. Still, towards vulnerability harmonization, it is proposed to tackle this issue by using a heuristic approach in which a linear combination of vulnerability models is adopted in cross-border countries, as shown in [12] and [13]. Concerning flood risk, a procedure to generate flood hazard maps in cross-border catchments is proposed to harmonize flood hazard and generate maps for common and predefined return periods, while a common vulnerability model is adopted for evaluating flood vulnerability of residential buildings (HAZUS, [14]).…”

Section: 2mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It consists of the linear combination of the national typological-based fragility curves of the two countries, aimed at obtaining a set of curves for the specific cross-border context. The coefficients used in the aggregation are calibrated based on (1) differences between building typologies on a given side of the border with respect to typologies widespread in both countries nationwide (that characterized national vulnerability models) and (2) differences in methodologies used for vulnerability assessment in both countries ( [12]; [13]). For the evaluation of economic losses, harmonized earthquake-consequence functions are proposed as well.…”

Section: Application At Italy-slovenia Bordermentioning

confidence: 99%

A Multi-Risk Framework for Assessing and Ranking Seismic and Flood Risks: An Application in Italy-Slovenia Transboundary Region

Polese,

Tocchi,

Dolsek

et al. 2023

Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computational Methods in Structural Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering (COM

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To formulate suitable prevention and mitigation policies, risk assessment is the primary tool adopted by decision makers to understand and quantify the potential impacts resulting from hazardous events. In areas exposed to multiple hazards a joint analysis for quantifying and comparing all risks that potentially affect the territory is crucial. However, the evaluation of possible interactions among risks and their comparison could be a complex task. This paper illustrates the methodology for multi-risk assessment proposed within BORIS project (Cross BOrder RISk assessment for increased prevention and preparedness in Europe), focusing on the assessment of seismic and flood risk in the Eastern Alps cross-border area between Italy, Slovenia and Austria. Adopting a multi-layer single risk approach, the risk evaluation related to the investigated hazards is performed by independent analyses and the expected losses are compared and ranked through risk curves. To ensure the comparability of the risks, the same boundary conditions for the analysis (common area, time frame of analysis and metric to represent the risk) as well as the same methodological approach to compute the probabilistic risk curves are defined. The harmonized methodology proposed is applied to a pilot transboundary region at the Italy-Slovenia border, including 27 municipalities in Italy and 6 in Slovenia. The municipal scale is selected as a scale to represent and compare the risks and the metric to evaluate impacts is measured in terms of direct economic losses. Results in terms of Expected Annual Losses (EAL) show in which municipality the overall risk is significantly high and in which town one risk could be more relevant than the other.

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Fiscal resilience over time and its management in the context of multi-risks: an application to the Danube Region

Hochrainer-Stigler,

Šakić Trogrlić,

Reiter

2024

Nat Hazards

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Multi-hazards as well as multi-risk management are increasingly gaining importance in research, policy, and practice, but present a challenging task. Focusing on governments as key risk bearers, we assume a multi-hazard and multi-risk perspective and address the question of how different natural hazards can influence fiscal risk and how fiscal risk can change over time due to other risk realizations (e.g., pandemics). We employ a risk-layer approach to analyze the changes in fiscal risk, comparing the fiscal stress associated with different hazards during distinct time periods and scenarios. In doing so, we address the question under which circumstances risk reduction or risk financing may be needed as well as how an iterative approach can account for changing financing resource levels for different hazards under different scenarios. We apply this methodology to the Danube Region which is exposed to different natural hazards and encompasses countries with different levels of fiscal resilience. Furthermore, the countries in the Danube Region were affected by Covid-19, which acted as an additional stressor and caused large economic costs. The analysis should demonstrate the flexibility as well as the relevance of the presented methodology to address multi-risks within a coherent framework. One of the main outcomes of the study is the appreciation of different fiscal resilience levels for different countries and the different types of disasters they are exposed to, which can inform the diverse strategies needed on a case-by-case basis but within a common framework to tackle current and future risks. The analysis should be therefore not only informative for the Danube Region and respective countries but also regarding the more general question under which circumstances risk reduction or risk financing may be needed as well as how an iterative approach can account for changing financing resource levels against multiple risks.

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Seismic risk assessment in transboundary areas: the case study on the border between Italy and Slovenia

Cited by 4 publications

References 11 publications

Bias in the Estimation of Seismic Risk for Municipal Building Stocks Due to Limited Data

Bias in the Estimation of Seismic Risk for Municipal Building Stocks Due to Limited Data

A Multi-Risk Framework for Assessing and Ranking Seismic and Flood Risks: An Application in Italy-Slovenia Transboundary Region

Fiscal resilience over time and its management in the context of multi-risks: an application to the Danube Region

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