Seismic Risk Evaluation of Linear Facility for Risk Finance

Omine, Hideto; Yoshikawa, Hiromichi; Yashiro, Harumi; Ohtaki, Takeshi

doi:10.2208/jscejsp.67.14

Cited by 7 publications

(2 citation statements)

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“…Regarding the earthquake risk assessment, it was difficult to implement an engineering analysis of earthquake damages on the ground and structures from an epicenter and along railway lines with a total length of several tens to hundreds kilometers. However, in recent years, practical analysis methods are being developed by the previous studies 28) and Railway Technical Research Institute 29) .…”

Section: Risk Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ruin Probability on Storm and Flood Disaster Risk Finance in Multiple Railway Businesses

Ohori

2019

Journal of JSCE

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Given that the losses incurred from natural disasters are uncertain and characterized by considerable fluctuation, restoration funds intended for disaster preparation are usually calculated based on the assumption of probable maximum loss (PML). However, preparing for PML via the acquisition of sufficient funding is difficult for railway companies that suffer from financial difficulties. These companies urgently need to implement risk financing (RF) strategies against frequent storm and flood disasters to avoid insolvency. Meanwhile, there is also a great need for an analysis of storm and flood disaster RF with targeting multiple railway businesses for reasons of group insurance or consolidated accounting. To address these issues, this study develop a financial risk model that considers the disaster-related characteristics and financial conditions of multiple railway businesses and establish a ruin probability model for the mathematical analysis of the procurement of funds, including initial reserves, insurance money, and subsidy. These models are designed to help multiple railway businesses prepare for losses estimated on the grounds of data on past damages. Case studies that feature actual data on railway companies across Japan are conducted to demonstrate and verify the effectiveness of the proposed models.

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Section: Risk Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In case that t = 1 and θi = θ (i = 1, 2, …, m) in formula (62), formulas (28) and (43) are substituted into formula (59) as follows:…”

Section: A) Surplus Immediately After Ruin and Ruin Probability In A mentioning

confidence: 99%