Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia

Abstract

Abstract. Colombia is in one of the most active seismic zones on Earth, where the Nazca, Caribbean, and South American plates converge. Approximately 83 % of the national population lives in intermediate to high seismic hazard zones, and a significant part of the country’s building inventory dates from before the nation’s first seismic design code (1984). At present, seismic risk scenarios are available for the major cities of the country, but there is still a need to undertake such studies in other regions. This paper presents a seismic risk scenario for the “Sabana Centro” province, an intermediate hazard zone located close to the country’s capital. An exposure model was created combining information from the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation, surveys, and the national census. Fragility and vulnerability curves were assigned to the building types of the region. A hazard model was developed for the region and eighteen earthquake scenarios with a return period of 475 years were simulated using the OpenQuake (OQ) hazard and risk assessment tool to estimate damage and economic losses. In addition, a social vulnerability index (SVI) based on demographic information was used to assess the direct economic loss in terms of replacement costs. The results show that 18 % of all buildings considered in the region would experience collapse, and 7 % would suffer severe damage. Losses account for 18 % of the total replacement cost of the buildings and represent 15 % of the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the region.

Impact of Urbanization on Seismic Risk: A Study Based on Remote Sensing Data

“…This means that the results of the calculation presented in this paper are only theoretically reliable. Second, since the study area is relatively small, we perform calculations by setting a consistent PGA value rather than using the conventional seismic hazard model [80,81].…”

Seismic risk scenarios for the residential buildings in the Sabana Centro province in Colombia

“…As introduced above, this study uses Vs 30 to account for ground motion amplification due to soil conditions (Choi and Stewart, 2005). The values in this region range between 112 and 1100 m s −1 .…”

“…For the first component (i.e., the hazard), a national probabilistic seismic hazard model developed by the SGC was used to select the events of interest to estimate potential damage and expected losses. In addition, a model developed by the SGC that describes the spatial distribution of Vs 30 values was considered as a proxy to account for ground motion amplification due to soil conditions (Choi and Stewart, 2005). Information available from the national census was used to create the exposure model.…”