Seismic, structural, and individual factors associated with earthquake related injury

Abstract

Background: Earthquakes cause thousands of deaths worldwide every year, and systematic study of the causes of these deaths can lead to their prevention. Few studies have examined how multiple types of risk factors are related to physical injury during an earthquake. Methods: A population based case-control study was conducted to examine how individual characteristics, building characteristics, and seismic features of the 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake contributed to physical injury. Cases included fatal and hospital-admitted injuries caused by the earthquake. Controls were drawn from a population based phone survey of county residents. Cases were individually matched to two sets of controls: one matched by age and gender and one matched by location at the time of the earthquake. Results: Individuals over age 65 had 2.9 times the risk of injury as younger people (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2 to 7.4) and women had a 2.4 times greater risk than men (95% CI 1.2 to 5.1). Location in multiple unit residential and commercial structures each led to increased injury risk compared with single unit residential structures, but the exact estimate varied depending on the control group used. With every increase in ground motion of 10%g, injury risk increased 2.2 times (95% CI 1.6 to 3.3). Conclusions: Controlling for other factors, it was found that individual, building, and seismic characteristics were independently predictive of increased injury risk. Prevention and preparedness efforts should focus on each of these as potential points of intervention.

Integrating epidemiological and engineering approaches in the assessment of human casualties in earthquakes

“…Predictors are likely to be highly interactive and varied based on the parameters of the earthquake and its location. For example, increased risk of death among the elderly and those with disabilities could be tied both to the types of structures and to the types of behaviors-such as an inability to evacuate the building (Peek-Asa et al 2003;Chou et al 2004). However, these factors that represent human vulnerability to disasters are not currently integrated in casualty estimation models, a fact that can alter the outcomes of the risk assessment and management.…”

“…Studies from the USA, Taiwan, Turkey and Haiti found no differences in the risk of injury and death by gender (Mahue-Giangreco et al 2001;Liang et al 2001;Ellidokuz et al 2005;Doocy et al 2013). Among the four studies that found women at higher risk of injury and death, two from the USA (Shoaf et al 1998;Peek-Asa et al 2003) had the highest odds ratios (OR) for increased risk of injury of 1.64 (95 % CI N/A) and 2.4 (95 % CI 1.2, 5.1), respectively. Studies from Taiwan and Peru found women to be at higher risk of injury (Doocy et al 2009) and death (Chou et al 2004), but with smaller odds ratios: OR 1.2 (95 % CI 1.1, 1.3) and OR 1.6 (95 % CI 1.0, 2.7), respectively.…”

“…Among the seven studies that found the elderly to be at higher risk for injury and death, Chou et al from Taiwan (2004) had the highest odds ratio for increased risk of death of 5.5 (95 % CI 4.4, 6.8). Three studies from the USA and Haiti (Mahue-Giangreco et al 2001;Peek-Asa et al 2003;Doocy et al 2013) found lower odds ratios of increased risk of injury OR 2.69 (95 % CI 1.34, 5.4), OR 2.9 (95 % CI 1.2, 7.4) and increased risk of death OR 2.8 (95 % CI 1.66, 4.72), respectively. Two other studies from Taiwan and China (Liang et al 2001;Dong et al 2012) also found age to be significantly associated with higher mortality and reported coefficient value of 0.101 (95 % CI 0.076, 0.125) and B coefficient of 1.539 (95 % CI N/A).…”

“…These criteria used to screen all abstracts included. Thirteen studies met these criteria and were included in this section (Shoaf et al 1998;Mahue-Giangreco et al 2001;(Liang et al 2001;Peek-Asa et al 2003;Chou et al 2004;Doocy et al 2009Doocy et al , 2013Ellidokuz et al 2005;Dong et al 2012;Kolbe et al 2010;Osaki and Minowa 2001;Roces et al 1992;Armenian et al 1992). The steps of the literature review are described in Fig.…”

Ensuring adaptation to climate change does not increase health risks from the built environment

“…Populations located over tectonic plate activity zones face a high risk of earthquake-related morbidity and mortality, and they continue to grow in many of these high risk zones, facing even greater risk [52,53]. In the 20 years 1985-2005 earthquakes caused more than a million deaths worldwide with almost half that number in China.…”