Seismicity at Ceboruco Volcano, Mexico

Sánchez, John J.; Núñez-Cornũ, F. J.; Suarez-Plascencia, C.; Trejo-Gómez, Elizabeth

doi:10.1785/gssrl.80.5.823

Cited by 11 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…The increase in the seismic activity suggested by these studies (Sánchez et al, 2009;Rodríguez-Uribe et al, 2013) is based on a limited set of data (only one station, few years of recording) and needs to be viewed with caution. Nonetheless, it represents a valuable attempt to determine the level of base-line activity at Ceboruco and compares successive events in a time frame of 5 years.…”

Section: The Historical 1870-1875 Eruption and Recent Activitymentioning

confidence: 96%

“…The University of Guadalajara and the Civil Protection Office of the State of Nayarit installed a temporary (2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008) seismic station (CEBN) on the south flank of the volcano (2117 m a.s.l.). Sánchez et al (2009) and Rodríguez-Uribe et al (2013) classified the seismicity recorded within a radius of 5 km around the seismic station into three major types of events following the scheme proposed by McNutt (2000): a) Volcano-tectonic earthquakes (VT), which indicate a stress propagation regime in the faults that cross the volcanic edifice at a low but consistent rate; b) low frequency earthquakes (LF), which might be related to the presence of pressurized fluids or to fluid-solid interaction; and c) mixed or hybrid events, which are signals derived from processes close to the surface that might indicate renewed or intensified fumarole activity in or near the plug-domes in the interior crater, consistent with an active hydrothermal system.…”

Section: The Historical 1870-1875 Eruption and Recent Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent seismic studies indicate that although Ceboruco's activity is generally below background levels of other volcanoes, it presents a state of mild unrest (Rodríguez-Uribe et al, 2013). According to Sánchez et al (2009) low frequency events indicate the presence of pressurized fluids or fluid-solid interaction and the excitation of trapped conduit waves. Furthermore, Rodríguez-Uribe et al (2013) analyzed the same seismic dataset (i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ceboruco hazard map: part I - definition of hazard scenarios based on the eruptive history

et al. 2019

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Of the 48 volcanoes in Mexico listed as potentially active by the National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED), Ceboruco, located in the western Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt, is considered among the 5 most hazardous. Its recent eruptive history includes a large magnitude Plinian (VEI 6) eruption~1000 years ago and the historical 1870-1875 vulcanian (VEI 3) eruption, as well as recent fumarolic and seismic activity. Ceboruco is a relatively young (< 400,000 years) stratovolcano characterized by abrupt changes in eruptive behavior. Individual eruptive episodes have great variations in style (effusive andesitic to highly-explosive rhyodacitic) and duration. These factors complicate hazard assessment. Three main eruptive scenarios of different magnitudes (large, intermediate, small) and eruption characteristics (likelihood of occurrence: high, medium, small) have been identified and will be presented as a background to build the volcanic hazard map for Ceboruco volcano (presented in part II of this work). Here, we report on the detailed eruptive history, with emphasis on the volcanic products of each of the eruptions, in order to identify those deposits that can serve as a reference for calibrating the modeling software (Tephra2 and Hazmap for ash fallout, Eject! code for ballistics, Etna Lava Flow Model for lava flows, Titan2D for pyroclastic density currents, and Flo-2D and LaharZ for lahars) that will be used in further steps to simulate different volcanic phenomena and lead to the construction of the hazard map.

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Section: The Historical 1870-1875 Eruption and Recent Activitymentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: The Historical 1870-1875 Eruption and Recent Activitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ceboruco hazard map: part I - definition of hazard scenarios based on the eruptive history

et al. 2019

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“…increased degassing (i u ) -in ltration of abundant meteoric water from a passing hurricane may lead to an increased degassing due to the residual heat from cooling magma. From the analysis of two seismic datasets, Rodríguez Uribe et al 2013and Sánchez et al (2009) con rmed that the Lf events recorded at Ceboruco are associated with movement of pressurized uids.…”

Section: The Event Tree For Pvha At Ceborucomentioning

confidence: 98%

“…'Sulphur-smelling' waters after two tectonic earthquakes in AD 1566 (Sieron and Siebe 2008;de Ciudad Real 1976) and AD 1567 (Sieron and Siebe 2008;Tello 1968) indicate changes in porosity and permeability that might have facilitated migration of magmatic gases (Sieron and Siebe 2008). ii) Núñez-Cornú et al 2020, Rodríguez Uribe et al 2013and Sánchez et al (2009) concluded that the seismic swarms at Ceboruco are dominated by volcano-tectonic (VT) and low-frequency (Lf) earthquakes and are associated with the faults in and around the edi ce;…”

Section: The Event Tree For Pvha At Ceborucomentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic multi – hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico

Constantinescu

Zuccoloto

Ferrés

et al. 2021

Preprint

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We conduct a probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico) using PyBetVH, an e-tool based on the Bayesian event tree (BET) methodology. We use available information about the volcano, including eruptive history, numerical and theoretical models, to generate probability maps. Our hazard assessment accounts for the variability of eruption types expected at Ceboruco and the hazardous volcanic phenomena these eruptions generate. We create a generic event tree for Ceboruco to account for magmatic and amagmatic activity. For a magmatic eruption, we choose three scenarios: i) small (effusive), ii) medium (vulcanian/subPlinian) and iii) large (Plinian) based on the Holocene history of the volcano; with their related hazardous phenomena: ballistics, tephra fallout, pyroclastic density currents, lahars and lava flows. Despite numerous eruptions in the latest Holocene and efforts by several university and government groups to create and sustain a monitoring network, Ceboruco remains under-monitored, meaning that it is intermittently rather than continuously monitored by dedicated groups. With no consistent monitoring data available, we look at the geology and the eruptive history to inform our prior models. We estimate the probability of a magmatic eruption within the next time window (1 year) of ~ 0.002. We show how the BET creates higher probabilities in the absence of monitoring data. That is, there is a cost in terms of higher probabilities and higher uncertainties for having not yet developed a sustained volcano monitoring network. We present absolute probability maps (unconditional in terms of eruption size and vent location) for a magmatic eruption at Ceboruco volcano. With PyBetVH we estimate and visualize the uncertainties associated with each hazard map. Our intent is that hazard maps and uncertainties will be useful to local authorities who need to understand the hazard maps when considering the development of long-term urban and land-use planning and short-term crisis management strategies, and to the scientific community in their efforts to sustain monitoring of this active volcano.

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A preliminary probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico)

Constantinescu¹,

Zuccolotto²,

López³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Seismicity at Ceboruco Volcano, Mexico

Cited by 11 publications

References 17 publications

Ceboruco hazard map: part I - definition of hazard scenarios based on the eruptive history

Ceboruco hazard map: part I - definition of hazard scenarios based on the eruptive history

Probabilistic multi – hazard assessment at an active but under-monitored volcano: Ceboruco, Mexico

A preliminary probabilistic multi-hazard assessment for Ceboruco volcano (Mexico)

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