Seismicity Gap near Oaxaca, Southern Mexico as a Probable Precursor to a Large Earthquake

Ohtake, Masakazu; Matumoto, Tosimatu; Latham, Gary V.

doi:10.1007/978-3-0348-5745-1_23

Cited by 44 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…In the Yakataga area we observed at least four surges of activity (1958, 1964, 1970, and 1979), any of which could have been interpreted as precursory effects. Also, we have not observed a sudden decrease in the number of small shocks within the zone of quiescence that resembles the changes reported by Ohtake et al (28) prior to several earthquakes. Thus, we do not find any clear evidence in the Yakataga area for temporal changes on a time scale shorter than about 20 years.…”

Section: 'supporting

confidence: 88%

Yakataga Gap, Alaska: Seismic History and Earthquake Potential

McCann¹,

Pérez²,

Sykes³

1980

Science

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A 250-kilometer-long seismic gap in southern Alaska, which is situated along the boundary between the North American and Pacific plates, ruptured in two great earthquakes in 1899. Within the gap, earthquakes of moderate size form a ring of activity around a region of very low seismicity. The number of shocks of magnitude 6 or larger in this ring appears to have increased significantly since the 1958 earthquake, which occurred on the adjacent part of the plate boundary. This space-time pattern is similar to long-term patterns that preceded several large earthquakes in Japan. A shock of magnitude 7.7 on 28 February 1979 ruptured only a small part of the seismic gap. The remaining part, which already may have stored sufficient strain to generate a great shock, warrants intensive study to evaluate its potential for such an event.

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Section: 'supporting

confidence: 88%

Yakataga Gap, Alaska: Seismic History and Earthquake Potential

McCann¹,

Pérez²,

Sykes³

1980

Science

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“…Several significant cases support the hypothesis that seismic quiescence precedes the occurrence of large earthquakes [e.g., Mogi , 1969; Ohtake et al , 1977; Wyss , 1985]. Wyss and Habermann [1988] summarized seventeen cases of precursory seismic quiescence preceding main shocks with magnitudes ranging from M = 4.7 to 8.0, and found that (1) the rate of decrease ranged from 45% to 90%, (2) the duration of the precursors ranged from 15 to 75 months, (3) if a false alarm was defined as a period of quiescence with a significance level larger than a precursory quiescence in the same tectonic area, the false alarm rate might be in the order of 50%, and (4) failure to predict might be expected in 50% of the main shocks, even in carefully monitored areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 65%

“… Wyss and Habermann [1988] summarized seventeen cases of precursory seismic quiescence preceding main shocks with magnitudes ranging from M = 4.7 to 8.0, and found that (1) the rate of decrease ranged from 45% to 90%, (2) the duration of the precursors ranged from 15 to 75 months, (3) if a false alarm was defined as a period of quiescence with a significance level larger than a precursory quiescence in the same tectonic area, the false alarm rate might be in the order of 50%, and (4) failure to predict might be expected in 50% of the main shocks, even in carefully monitored areas. Among the seventeen cases, there were three which could be considered successful predictions in the sense that a quiescence anomaly was recognized and interpreted as a precursor before the occurrence of the main shock [ Ohtake et al , 1977; Kisslinger , 1988; Wyss and Burford , 1985; Wyss and Burford , 1987]. Recently, more reliable examples of seismic quiescence have been reported: the Spitak earthquake ( M = 7.0) in 1988 [ Wyss and Martirosyan , 1998], the Landerse earthquake ( M = 7.5) in 1992 [ Wiemer and Wyss , 1994], the Hokkaido‐Toho‐oki earthquake ( M w = 8.3) in 1994 [ Katsumata and Kasahara , 1999], the Hyogo‐ken Nanbu earthquake ( M = 7.3) in 1995 [ Enescu and Ito , 2001].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursory seismic quiescence before theM_w= 8.3 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake on 26 September 2003 revealed by a re-examined earthquake catalog

Katsumata¹

2011

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M w = 8.3) occurred on 26 September 2003 off the pacific coast of Hokkaido, Japan. In the present study, an earthquake catalog is used that lists 2,000 earthquakes with M ≥ 3.3. All of the earthquake waveforms were recorded by the Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Hokkaido University. In the present study, these waveforms are manually re-examined, and hypocenters and magnitudes are re-calculated. A detailed analysis of the re-determined earthquake catalog between 1994 and 2003 using a gridding technique (ZMAP) shows that the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake is preceded by two neighboring seismic quiescence anomalies that start around the beginning of 1999, and last about 5 years, until the main shock occurs. These quiescence anomalies are located around the asperity ruptured by the main shock, and the Z-values are +3.9 and +4.0 for a time window of T w = 4 years, using a sample size of N = 100 earthquakes. The detected seismic quiescences can be interpreted as being caused by a decrease of 50% in the stressing rate based on Dieterich's theory. It is proposed that a quasi-static pre-slip occurs at the northeastern edge of the asperity ruptured by the main shock, and lasts for five years until the main shock occurs. By calculating the change in the Coulomb failure stress (DCFS), it is found that negative DCFS areas are consistent with the two quiescence anomalies, and a positive DCFS area corresponds to the hypocenter of the main shock, indicating that the quasi-static pre-slip model is a plausible one.

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“…The important steps are hence to survey triggering background of a large earthquake by smaller leading events, and also to detect anomalies in seismicity attributed to stress changes by predictable causes. Many leading works [e.g., Inouye , 1965; Utsu , 1968; Ohtake et al , 1977; Wyss and Burford , 1987; Kisslinger , 1988; Keylis ‐ Borok and Malinovskaya , 1964; Sekiya , 1976; Evison , 1977; Sykes and Jaume , 1990], in fact, report anomalies, either quiescence or activation, in seismicity before the occurrence of a large event. Fitting and extrapolating a reasonable statistical model to a seismic sequence provides a visual method to search for such anomalies in seismicity caused by stress changes transferred from outside.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 M_w = 6.9 Iwate‐Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake

2010

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[1] The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model has been widely used for detecting seismicity anomalies, such as quiescence and activation during aftershock sequences of large earthquakes and background levels of seismicity. The causes of such anomalies are thought to be associated with spatiotemporal changes in stress, even tiny perturbation of local stress. Here we analyze the seismic activity during the decade prior to the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi inland earthquake of M7.2 (M w 6.9), to fit the ETAS model to the seismicity from various regions around the source over northern Honshu, Japan. From the viewpoint of the analyses with the ETAS model, we find northern Honshu is divided into three areas of distinctive behaviors, increased seismicity, decreased seismicity, and normal seismicity relative to the ETAS prediction. As in other previously published papers, here we hypothesize that Coulomb stress changes caused by a few years of precursory slip of the Iwate-Miyagi earthquake resulted in the seismicity changes in and around the 2008 source region. The confirmed significant seismic anomalies in respective regions are consistent with the increments of the Coulomb failure stress of the corresponding regions that are calculated by the assumed slow slip on the southern part of the faults of the main shock. The local crustal deformations observed from a dense Global Positioning System network, including a station right above the focal fault, supports that slow slip on the fault had been taking place for about 5 years prior to the occurrence of the focal earthquake and suggests that the slip terminated or migrated to down-dip extension of the fault around 1 year before the rupture.Citation: Kumazawa, T., Y. Ogata, and S. Toda (2010), Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 M w = 6.9 Iwate-Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake,

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Seismicity Gap near Oaxaca, Southern Mexico as a Probable Precursor to a Large Earthquake

Cited by 44 publications

References 15 publications

Yakataga Gap, Alaska: Seismic History and Earthquake Potential

Yakataga Gap, Alaska: Seismic History and Earthquake Potential

Precursory seismic quiescence before theM_w= 8.3 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake on 26 September 2003 revealed by a re-examined earthquake catalog

Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 M_w = 6.9 Iwate‐Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake

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Seismicity Gap near Oaxaca, Southern Mexico as a Probable Precursor to a Large Earthquake

Cited by 44 publications

References 15 publications

Yakataga Gap, Alaska: Seismic History and Earthquake Potential

Yakataga Gap, Alaska: Seismic History and Earthquake Potential

Precursory seismic quiescence before theMw= 8.3 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake on 26 September 2003 revealed by a re-examined earthquake catalog

Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 Mw = 6.9 Iwate‐Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake

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Precursory seismic quiescence before theM_w= 8.3 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake on 26 September 2003 revealed by a re-examined earthquake catalog

Precursory seismic anomalies and transient crustal deformation prior to the 2008 M_w = 6.9 Iwate‐Miyagi Nairiku, Japan, earthquake