Seismotectonic Deformations Related to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake at Different Stages of the Seismic Cycle, Based on Satellite Geodetic Observations

Lobkovsky, L. I.; Vladimirova, I. S.; Gabsatarov, Y. V.; Steblov, G. M.

doi:10.1134/s1028334x18080159

Cited by 10 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…During the postseismic stage of the cycle, relaxation of residual elastic stresses occurs due to quasi-independent displacements of blocks. This behavior of the blockwise structure is clearly identified from the analysis of seismotectonic deformations associated with the largest earthquakes of the early 21st century [61][62][63].…”

Section: Keyboard Model Of Earthquake Generation Under Oblique Subduc...mentioning

confidence: 79%

Features of the Largest Earthquake Seismic Cycles in the Western Part of the Aleutian Subduction Zone

et al. 2022

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We discussed the peculiarities of the seismic cycle in Aleutian subduction zone, characterized by an oblique subduction setting. It was shown that the orientation of the plate convergence vector relative to the subduction zone axis can have a significant impact on the preparation and occurrence of the largest earthquakes in subduction zones. In particular, from the analysis of the seismic activity occurring in the western part of the Aleutian island arc, it was found that the seismic cycles here are shorter than in the eastern part of the arc. It was revealed that the strongest earthquakes, repeating in the same areas of the western part of the Aleutian subduction zone, differ both in magnitude and length of the fault zone. Taking into account the oblique subduction setting, we proposed the keyboard model of the largest megathrust earthquakes generation as a mechanism potentially capable of explaining the reduction in the seismic cycle duration and noticeable differences in the spatial extent and localization of the fault zones of events with similar magnitudes occurring in the same segment of the western half of the Aleutian subduction zone.

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Section: Keyboard Model Of Earthquake Generation Under Oblique Subduc...mentioning

confidence: 79%

Features of the Largest Earthquake Seismic Cycles in the Western Part of the Aleutian Subduction Zone

et al. 2022

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“…Modeling earthquake predictions in the regions of Japan and California showed that the anomalous field values that determine the change in the rates of deformations of the Earth's surface, the change in the characteristics of the seismic regime, and the spatial correlation of these processes quite well distinguish the spatio-temporal areas preceding the appearance of the epicenters of strong earthquakes. Taking into account that this result was obtained for regions that differ significantly in seismotectonic and geodynamic regimes [53,54], it can be concluded that fields reflecting anomalous changes in seismotectonic and geodynamic processes are the most informative for predicting earthquakes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 90%

Analyzing the Performance of GPS Data for Earthquake Prediction

2021

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The results of earthquake prediction largely depend on the quality of data and the methods of their joint processing. At present, for a number of regions, it is possible, in addition to data from earthquake catalogs, to use space geodesy data obtained with the help of GPS. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the efficiency of using the time series of displacements of the Earth’s surface according to GPS data for the systematic prediction of earthquakes. The criterion of efficiency is the probability of successful prediction of an earthquake with a limited size of the alarm zone. We use a machine learning method, namely the method of the minimum area of alarm, to predict earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 6.0 and a hypocenter depth of up to 60 km, which occurred from 2016 to 2020 in Japan, and earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 5.5. and a hypocenter depth of up to 60 km, which happened from 2013 to 2020 in California. For each region, we compare the following results: random forecast of earthquakes, forecast obtained with the field of spatial density of earthquake epicenters, forecast obtained with spatio-temporal fields based on GPS data, based on seismological data, and based on combined GPS data and seismological data. The results confirm the effectiveness of using GPS data for the systematic prediction of earthquakes.

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“…Thus, the observed displacements are in good agreement with the idea that the dominant displacement component is the one associated with the continental margin deformation due to the subduction of the Pacific plate. In the first year after the Tohoku earthquake, the displacement vectors abruptly change their direction to the southeast, opposite to the interseismic orientation, and retain this direction near the epicenter for at least 4 years, gradually decreasing in magnitude [Lobkovsky et al, 2018].…”

Section: Analysis Of the Present-day Movements Of The Earth's Surface...mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Studying the presented velocity field variations is important due to the occurrence of the largest subduction earthquakes at the continental margin of East Asia: the 2006-2007 Simushir earthquakes (Mw = 8.1 − 8.3) and the 2011 Tohoku earthquake with Mw = 9.0 [Dziewonski et al, 1981;Ekström et al, 2012], that have seriously affected the regional deformation field. Earlier, we have carried out a detailed investigation of the seismic cycles of these earthquakes and their impact on the velocity field at the East Asia's continental margin [Lobkovsky et al, 2017b[Lobkovsky et al, , 2018Vladimirova et al, 2020].…”

Section: Analysis Of the Present-day Movements Of The Earth's Surface...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Geodynamic model of the interaction between the continental lithosphere and the active continental margin in East Asia

Lobkovsky¹,

Gabsatarov²,

Алексеев³

et al. 2022

Russian Journal of Earth Sciences

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We propose a concept for a geodynamic model of East Asia, taking into account the mechanism of the interaction between the stable part of the regional continental lithosphere and the active continental margin along the Kuril-Kamchatka and Japan island arcs. The concept involves upper mantle convection combined with keyboard-block mechanism explaining seismic cycle patterns in the active continental margin and provides grounds to resolve the paradoxes of the present-day velocity field observed by satellite geodesy methods. These paradoxes are associated with enormous variation in the velocity field, such as sometimes contradict directions of surface motions in the adjacent portions of the earth’s surface. We propose a model that attribute the observed motion pattern to the superposition of the long-term subduction-driven convection regime beneath the continent causing the ocean-ward lithosphere extension and the shorter-term cyclic motion of seismogenic blocks with alternating directions. The model contributes to the development of the physically-based theoretical concepts of modern plate tectonics and eliminates the contradictions between the observed data and classical plate tectonics in East Asia region.

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Seismotectonic Deformations Related to the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake at Different Stages of the Seismic Cycle, Based on Satellite Geodetic Observations

Cited by 10 publications

References 11 publications

Features of the Largest Earthquake Seismic Cycles in the Western Part of the Aleutian Subduction Zone

Features of the Largest Earthquake Seismic Cycles in the Western Part of the Aleutian Subduction Zone

Analyzing the Performance of GPS Data for Earthquake Prediction

Geodynamic model of the interaction between the continental lithosphere and the active continental margin in East Asia

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