Selecting an Efficient Adaptation Level to Uncertain Water Scarcity by Coupling Hydrological Modeling and Economic Valuation

Abstract

Abstract:In a context of high uncertainty of hydro-climatic variables, the development of updated methods to assess climate change impacts is as important as the provision of improved climate change data. This paper presents the impacts of climate change on the flooding problems concerning a critical area of Barcelona: the Raval district. For this purpose a specific study tackling climate change influence on extreme precipitation in Barcelona and a detailed 1D/2D coupled model were used. Once the model was developed and calibrated, several scenarios of adaptation measures were considered to cope with climate change effects for the 2050 horizon. Results concerning these scenarios were compared to a defined "Business as usual scenario". Climate change impacts were assessed in terms of flood hazard and risk maps concerning vehicular and pedestrian circulation for several return periods (1, 10 and 100 years) for all the considered scenarios. Additionally direct tangible damages were estimated using depth-damage curves. Combining hazard and vulnerability levels by using a GIS-based toolbox, the expected annual damage of the area is obtained. By undertaking a cost-benefit analysis, the effectiveness of the strategies is assessed, and a prioritization of the most adequate ones for each scenario is carried out.

The Economic Impacts of Droughts: A Framework for Analysis

“…2 illustrates the relationship between economic cost/impact of blue droughts and the amount of hydraulic capital. Similar approaches to the cost-benefit analysis of adaptation measures in water issues are provided by Guiu et al (2015), Rietveld (2011) and Jonkman et al (2004). W c is the total water storage and production capacity of a region (blue water).…”