Selection Bias and Continuous‐Time Duration Models: Consequences and a Proposed Solution

Boehmke, Frederick J.; Morey, Daniel S.; Shannon, Megan

doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00178.x

Cited by 114 publications

(99 citation statements)

References 51 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…By definition, however, rebel organizations are observed only once they engage in conflict, and it is difficult to set up a super sample of "potential groups" to consider selection to conflict. to our knowledge there exists no global data set on political organizations of which rebel organizations would be a subset, and the only available estimator of which we are aware (Boehmke, Morey, and Shannon 2006) does not allow for time-varying covariates and is restricted to a correlation coefficient between -.25 and .25. 93 Buhaug, gates, and lujala 2009. in particular, the cold war period is characterized by "robust rebellion" that benefits rebel organizations; it in turn is associated with long durations.…”

Section: Robustness Checksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War

Wucherpfennig¹,

Metternich²,

Cederman³

et al. 2011

World Pol.

218

196

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Previous research has focused primarily on how ethnicity may trigger civil war, and its effect on conflict duration remains disputed. Rather than treating conflict as a direct consequence of ethnic cleavages, the authors argue that ethnicity per se does not affect civil war duration. Instead, its effect depends on its relationship to political institutions. They employ a dyadic approach that emphasizes the political context in which both government leaders and nonstate challengers can capitalize on the ascriptive nature of ethnicity. They show that although states can initially benefit from politicizing ethnic relations, once violent conflict breaks out, such policies may backfire on the government and make it difficult for incumbent governments to accept settlements that could terminate conflicts. Past policies of ethnic exclusion also benefit rebel organizations fighting the government, since the resulting grievances increase collective group solidarity and render individual fighters more cost tolerant. Using a new data set that codes the nexus between rebel organizations and ethnic groups, as well as information on ethnopolitical exclusion, the authors find considerable support for their propositions.

show abstract

Section: Robustness Checksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War

Wucherpfennig¹,

Metternich²,

Cederman³

et al. 2011

World Pol.

218

196

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Table 24 This is left for future research. For a continuous-time hazard, a full information maximum-likelihood estimator was recently proposed by Boehmke et al (2006). 25 E.g.…”

Section: Endogenous Subsidy Choicementioning

confidence: 99%

Effectiveness of Bailouts in the EU

Glowicka¹

2006

SSRN Journal

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Governments in the EU frequently bail out firms in distress by granting state aid. The results are threefold. First, the estimated discrete-time hazard rate increases during the first four years after the subsidy and drops after that, suggesting that some bailouts only delayed exit instead of preventing it. The number of failing bailouts could be reduced if European control was tougher. Second, governments' bailout decisions favored state-owned firms, even though state-owned firms did not outperform private ones in the survival chances. Third, subsidy choice is an endogenous variable in the analysis of the hazard rate. Treating it as exogenous underestimates its impact on the bankruptcy probability. Several policy implications of the results are discussed in the paper.

show abstract

“…117 King and Zeng 2006. 118 Boehmke, Morey, and Shannon 2006. may serve as a window into the highly contingent process by which political events are created and interpreted in a democratic society.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Scandal Potential: How Political Context and News Congestion Affect the President's Vulnerability to Media Scandal

Nyhan¹

2014

Brit. J. Polit. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Despite its importance in contemporary American politics, presidential scandal is poorly understood within political science. Scholars typically interpret scandals as resulting from the disclosure of official misbehavior, but the likelihood and intensity of media scandals is also influenced by the political and news context. This article provides a theoretical argument for two independent factors that should increase the president's vulnerability to scandal: low approval among opposition party identifiers and a lack of congestion in the news agenda. Using new data and statistical approaches, I find strong support for both claims. These results suggest that contextual factors shape the occurrence of political events and how such events are interpreted.

show abstract

Selection Bias and Continuous‐Time Duration Models: Consequences and a Proposed Solution

Cited by 114 publications

References 51 publications

Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War

Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War

Effectiveness of Bailouts in the EU

Scandal Potential: How Political Context and News Congestion Affect the President's Vulnerability to Media Scandal

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About