1Inbreeding results from the mating of related individuals and has negative consequence because it brings together 2 deleterious variants in one individual. Inbreeding is associated with recessive diseases and reduced production or 3 fitness. In general, inbreeding is estimated with respect to a base population that needs to be defined. Ancestors 4 in generations anterior to the base population are considered unrelated. We herein propose a model that estimates 5 inbreeding relative to multiple age-based classes. Each inbreeding distribution is associated to a different time in 6 the past: recent inbreeding generating longer homozygous streches than more ancient. Our model is a mixture of 7 exponential distribution implemented in a hidden Markov model framework that uses marker allele frequencies, 8 genetic distances, genotyping error rates and the sequences of observed genotypes. Based on simulations studies, 9 we show that the inbreeding coefficients and the age of inbreeding are correctly estimated. Mean absolute errors 10 of estimators are low, the efficiency depending on the available information. When several inbreeding classes 11 are simulated, the model captures them if their ages are sufficiently different. Genotyping errors or low-fold 12 sequencing data are easily accommodated in the hidden Markov model framework. Application to real data sets 13 illustrate that the method can reveal different demographic histories among populations, some of them presenting 14 very recent bottlenecks or founder effects. The method also clearly identifies individuals resulting from extreme 15 consanguineous matings.
16With his pioneering work on self-fertilization, Darwin early noticed that mating relatives generally leads to off-18 spring with a reduced fitness (Darwin, 1876). This phenomenon now referred to as inbreeding depression may 19 mostly result from an increased homozygosity for (recessive) deleterious variants although a lack of heterozygos-20 ity at loci displaying heterozygous advantage (overdominance) might also be involved (Charlesworth and Willis, 21 2009). Accordingly, populations displaying high levels of individual inbreeding show a higher prevalence of mono-22 genic disorders (e.g., Charlier et al., 2008) or complex diseases (e.g., Rudan et al., 2003). Inbreeding depression 23 can thus increase the risk of extinction by reducing the population growth rate (Hedrick and Kalinowski, 2000; 24 Keller and Waller, 2002) although it may be conversely favorable in some conditions by purging deleterious vari-25 ants from the population (Estoup et al., 2016). Assessing individual inbreeding is then of paramount interest to 26 improve the management of populations under conservation or selection, and from a more general evolutionary 27 perspective to better understand the genetic architecture of inbreeding depression.
28The first standard measure for the level of individual inbreeding was introduced by Wright (1922) as the 29 coefficient of inbreeding (F) that he defined in terms of correlations betwe...