Selection in utero against male twins in the United States early in the COVID‐19 pandemic

Abstract

Objectives We aim to contribute to the literature reporting tests of selection in utero. The theory of reproductive suppression predicts that natural selection would conserve mechanisms, referred to collectively as selection in utero, that spontaneously abort fetuses unlikely to thrive as infants in the prevailing environment. Tests of this prediction include reports that women give birth to fewer than expected male twins, historically among the frailest of infants, during stressful times. The onset of the COVID‐19 pandemic in the United States in Spring 2020 demonstrably stressed the population. We test the hypothesis that conception cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic in the United States yielded fewer than expected live male twin births. Methods We retrieved deidentified data on the universe of live births in the United States from the National Center for Health Statistics birth certificate records. We applied Box‐Jenkins time‐series methods to the twin secondary sex ratio computed for 77 monthly conception cohorts spanning August 2013 to December 2019 to detect outlying cohorts in gestation at the onset of the pandemic. Results The twin secondary sex ratio fell below expected values in three conception cohorts (i.e., July, September, and October 2019, all p < .05) exposed in utero to the onset of the pandemic. Conclusions Our results add to prior findings consistent with selection in utero. The role of selection in utero in shaping the characteristics of live births cohorts, especially during the COVID‐19 pandemic, warrants further scrutiny.

Sibling rivalry between twins in utero and childhood: Evidence from birthweight and survival of 95 919 twin pairs in 72 low‐ and middle‐income countries

“…The evolution of both biological and social influences on parental investments in children could be subject to the hypothesis of Trivers and Willard (1973), in settings where selection pressures would favor traits and behaviors that protect the health and survival of females during times of scarcity, and lead to higher male–female sex ratios at times of abundance (Bruckner et al, 2022. ; Trivers & Willard, 1973).…”

“…The evolution of both biological and social influences on parental investments in children could be subject to the hypothesis of Trivers and Willard (1973), in settings where selection pressures would favor traits and behaviors that protect the health and survival of females during times of scarcity, and lead to higher male-female sex ratios at times of abundance (Bruckner et al, 2022.;Trivers & Willard, 1973). Taking account of any such "male frailty" in populations under stress would be important for understanding behavioral biases and guiding intervention to promote child development, by establishing baseline expected outcomes for male and female infants given local conditions at the time of their birth (Vu et al, 2018).…”