Selection of Model Approaches and Modelling Methods for Lifetime Prognosis

Abstract

Lifetime prognoses are fundamentally important to improve products regarding safety, costs, availability and sustainability. To modelling the lifetime of a system or its components and subsystems different methods and model approaches are available, which are not compatible in any case. Depending on the system, use case and available data, the existing model approaches and modelling methods are differently suitable for a precise lifetime prediction. In this contribution a procedure was developed to help in the selection of suitable approach-method combinations. For this purpose, the compatibility of method types with the different model approaches was assessed and criteria for the pre-selection of suitable approaches and methods for lifetime modelling were defined. The selection procedure was applied to the example of entities for electric powertrains of aircraft in early design stages. Finally, the results were summarized and evaluated. The insights gained in this paper can help to enhance lifetime models of products in early design phases.