Selection of the appropriate methodology for the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis on the territory of the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

Abstract. This paper presents a review of the approaches to the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis as well as discussion regarding the selection of the appropriate methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the territory of the Republic of Serbia. Use of the deductive approach has been suggested, as well as that the new Serbian seismic hazard maps should be expressed through the values of the peak ground acceleration, having in mind that the new hazard maps for the Republic of Serbia should be compiled in compliance with the recommendations of the Eurocode 8.

Towards preparation of design spectra for Serbian national annex to Eurocode 8: Part II. Usage of the UHS approach instead of normalized spectral shapes scaled by a single PSHA parameter

“…Although there are several different methodologies that can be used for the PSHA analyses (see e.g. discussion in: [7]), for the illustrative example and all discussions in this Paper we shall use the still widely used "deductive" approach, which is called "deductive" because beside using the catalogue of historical earthquakes and the appropriate empirical attenuation equations for the region 2 , we are also trying to deduce what are the possible faults and earthquake sources for the selected region, as well as what are the seismicity features of these sources. The first widely available computer program for performing elementary PSHA based on the work of Cornell [8] was presented in 1976 by McGuire [9], while the first complete deductive methodology for introduction and modeling of the tectonic region, and for producing complete response or Fourier spectra having a constant probability of no exceedance ("Uniform Risk Spectra") was developed by Anderson and Trifunac [10][11].…”