Selectively altering belief formation in the human brain

Sharot, Tali; Kanai, Ryota; Marston, David; Korn, Christoph W.; Rees, Geraint; Dolan, Raymond J.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1205828109

Cited by 159 publications

(147 citation statements)

References 15 publications

(21 reference statements)

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“…It is well established finding in psychological research that people tend to overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the likelihood of negative events (11)(12)(13)(14)(15)24). For example, people expect to enjoy healthier lives than average or underestimate the probability of being divorced (11).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Unmet Aspirations as an Explanation for the Age U-Shape in Human Wellbeing

Schwandt

2013

SSRN Journal

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A large literature in behavioral and social sciences has found that human wellbeing follows a U-shape over age. Some theories have assumed that the U-shape is caused by unmet expectations that are felt painfully in midlife but beneficially abandoned and experienced with less regret during old age. In a unique panel of 132,609 life satisfaction expectations matched to subsequent realizations, I find people to err systematically in predicting their life satisfaction over the life cycle. They expect --incorrectly --increases in young adulthood and decreases during old age. These errors are large, ranging from 9.8% at age 21 to -4.5% at age 68, they are stable over time and observed across socio-economic groups. These findings support theories that unmet expectations drive the age U-shape in wellbeing. . JEL Classifications: A12, I30, D84

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In old age expectations are adjusted downwards though actual wellbeing is rising. Human belief formation is known to exhibit systematic biases such as optimism (11)(12)(13)(14)(15) and the underestimation of hedonic adaptation to changes in life circumstances (16,17). -How satisfied are you with your life, all things considered?…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unmet Aspirations as an Explanation for the Age U-Shape in Human Wellbeing

Schwandt

2013

SSRN Journal

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“…Although most investigations of unrealistic optimism have taken place within a social-psychological framework, recently there has been growing interest in relevant neural and pharmacological mechanisms (Sharot et al, 2007(Sharot et al, , 2012a(Sharot et al, , 2012b. In a seminal study, Sharot et al (2011) identified right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), putatively extending into the pars opercularis, as the region of the brain responsible for coding information that should reduce positive expectations; moreover, these authors demonstrated that unrealistic optimism is associated with deficient coding of such information in this region.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vestibular stimulation attenuates unrealistic optimism

McKay

Tamagni

Palla

et al. 2013

Cortex

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INTRODUCTION: Unrealistic optimism refers to the pervasive tendency of healthy individuals to underestimate their likelihood of future misfortune, including illness. The phenomenon shares a qualitative resemblance with anosognosia, a neurological disorder characterized by a deficient appreciation of manifest current illness or impairment. Unrealistic optimism and anosognosia have been independently associated with a region of right inferior frontal gyrus, the pars opercularis. Moreover, anosognosia is temporarily abolished by vestibular stimulation, particularly by irrigation of the left (but not right) ear with cold water, a procedure known to activate the right inferior frontal region. We therefore hypothesized that left caloric stimulation would attenuate unrealistic optimism in healthy participants. METHODS: Thirty-one healthy right-handed adults underwent cold-water caloric vestibular stimulation of both ears in succession. During each stimulation episode, and at baseline, participants estimated their own relative risk of contracting a series of illnesses in the future. RESULTS: Compared to baseline, average risk estimates were significantly higher during left-ear stimulation, whereas they remained unchanged during right-ear stimulation. Unrealistic optimism was thus reduced selectively during cold caloric stimulation of the left ear. CONCLUSIONS: Our results point to a unitary mechanism underlying both anosognosia and unrealistic optimism, and suggest that unrealistic optimism is a form of subclinical anosognosia for prospective symptoms. Results: Compared to baseline, average risk estimates were significantly higher during left-ear stimulation, whereas they remained unchanged during right-ear stimulation.Unrealistic optimism was thus reduced selectively during cold caloric stimulation of the left ear. Conclusions:Our results point to a unitary mechanism underlying both anosognosia and unrealistic optimism, and suggest that unrealistic optimism is a form of subclinical anosognosia for prospective symptoms.

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“…We based our power analysis on previous research on the optimistic learning bias Korn et al, 2014;Kuzmanovic et al, 2015;Moutsiana et al, 2013;Sharot, Guitart-Masip, et al, 2012;Sharot, Kanai, et al, 2012;Sharot et al, 2011) Time Fig. 1.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Updating from good news conforms closely to Bayesian inference, whereas updating from bad news is reduced compared with normative predictions (Eil & Rao, 2011). Moreover, individual differences in optimistic learning track more closely with updating from bad news than good news (Lefebvre, Lebreton, Meyniel, BourgeoisGironde, & Palminteri, 2017;Moutsiana et al, 2013;Sharot et al, 2011), and interventions that alter optimistic learning affect updating from bad news but not good news (Sharot, Guitart-Masip, Korn, Chowdhury, & Dolan, 2012;Sharot, Kanai, et al, 2012). This suggests that increasing concern for others may increase vicarious optimism by reducing updating from bad news.…”

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confidence: 99%

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism

Kappes¹,

Crockett²,

Faber³

et al. 2018

Preprint

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An optimistic learning bias leads people to update their beliefs in response to better-than-expected “good news”, but neglect worse-than-expected “bad news”. Because evidence suggests this bias arises from self-concern, we hypothesized that a similar bias may affect beliefs about others’ future, to the extent that people care about others. Here, we demonstrate the phenomenon of vicarious optimism and show that it arises from concern for others. Participants predicted the likelihood of unpleasant future events that could happen to either themselves or others. In addition to showing an optimistic learning bias for events affecting themselves, people showed vicarious optimism when learning about events affecting friends and strangers. Vicarious optimism for strangers correlated with generosity toward strangers, and experimentally increasing concern for strangers amplified vicarious optimism for them. These findings suggest that concern for others can bias beliefs about their future welfare and that optimism in learning is not restricted to oneself.

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Selectively altering belief formation in the human brain

Cited by 159 publications

References 15 publications

Unmet Aspirations as an Explanation for the Age U-Shape in Human Wellbeing

Unmet Aspirations as an Explanation for the Age U-Shape in Human Wellbeing

Vestibular stimulation attenuates unrealistic optimism

Concern for Others Leads to Vicarious Optimism

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