Semantic-based End-to-End Learning for Typhoon Intensity Prediction

Abstract

Disaster prediction is one of the most critical tasks towards disaster surveillance and preparedness. Existing technologies employ different machine learning approaches to predict incoming disasters from historical environmental data. However, for short-term disasters (e.g., earthquakes), historical data alone has a limited prediction capability. Therefore, additional sources of warnings are required for accurate prediction. We consider social media as a supplementary source of knowledge in addition to historical environmental data. However, social media posts (e.g., tweets) is very informal and contains only limited content. To alleviate these limitations, we propose the combination of semantically-enriched word embedding model to represent entities in tweets with their semantic representations computed with the traditional word2vec. Moreover, we study how the correlation between social media posts and typhoons magnitudes (also called intensities) -in terms of volume and sentiments of tweets-. Based on these insights, we propose an end-to-end based framework that learns from disaster-related tweets and environmental data to improve typhoon intensity prediction. This paper is an extension of our work originally published in K-CAP 2019 [32]. We extended this paper by building our framework with state-of-the-art deep neural models, updated our dataset with new typhoons and their tweets to-date and benchmark our approach against recent baselines in disaster prediction. Our experimental results show that our approach outperforms the accuracy of the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of F1-score with (CNN by 12.1% and BiLSTM by 3.1%) improvement compared with last experiments.