Semiparametric analysis of German East-West migration intentions: facts and theory

Abstract

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Interne Migration, regionale Arbeitsmarktdynamik und Implikationen für Ost-West-Disparitäten: Ergebnisse auf Basis einer Panel VAR Analyse

“…The latter is also confirmed in Brücker & Trübswetter (2004) focusing on the role of self-selection in East-West migration. In a continuation of Burda (1993), Burda et al (1998) also indicates a significant, however non-linear influence of household income. 4 When interpreting these findings one however has to bear in mind that the above cited studies exclusively use data until the mid/late-1990s, which in fact may bias the results w.r.t.…”

On the dynamics of interstate migration: Migration costs and self-selection

“…7 Idiosyncratic shocks, aggregate shocks, and the persistency of the income process determine the transition of the distribution of income incentives after migration to the distribution of migration incentives before migration in the next period: The income distribution at the beginning of period t + 1, F t+1 ; results from adding idiosyncratic and aggregate shocks to the distribution of income after migration in period t,F t ; of whicĥ f it (w A ; w B ) is the conditional density, see (12). When a household has income w it+1 in period t+1, this can result from any possible combination of w it and it+1 = it+1 +!…”

“…This …nding extends the role of self-selection problems to a dynamic setup, which so far have been highlighted in static frameworks (see for example Borjas, 1987 Finding more reasonable cost estimates parallels the results of the investment literature, in which much more reasonable estimates of adjustment costs were obtained when …xed adjustment costs to capital were included into dynamic models. For migration, the issue of …xed and sunk costs was emphasized in the real-options approach by Burda (1993) and Burda et al (1998). However, these papers only look at migration as a once and for all decision, so that they preclude return migration.…”

Out-migration, wealth constraints, and the quality of local amenities

“…For example, most studies find that the willingness to move is higher for males and singles and decreases with age. Likewise, the impact of education and income on migration intentions is well documented to be nonlinear, usually explainable by differences in migration costs by education level and relative inequality at home and in the destination (Burda et al, 1998;Liebig and Sousa-Poza, 2004). …”