Sensing Population Displacement from Ukraine Using Facebook Data: Potential Impacts and Settlement Areas

Abstract

The escalation of conflict in Ukraine has triggered the largest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. As of 17 August 2022, over 6.6 million people have fled Ukraine. Large-scale efforts have been made to collect data and measure the scale of forced population displacements, and identify the major receiving countries of these population flows. Current evidence has thus focused on providing a country level representation of the unfolding refugee crisis. Less is known about the subnational patterns of population displacement within Ukraine, and potential subnational settlement areas of the continuous flow of Ukrainian refugees in major receiving countries. Highly granular geographical data in real time are critical to these ends to ensure the appropriate delivery of humanitarian assistance where it is most needed. Drawing on digital trace data from Meta-Facebook, this paper aims to identify and assess the potential settlement areas and impacts of population displacements on the demographic and economic structures of sub-national communities within and outside Ukraine. We reveal large population losses in eastern, southern and northern Ukraine, particularly Khersonska (59%), Kharkivska (55%) and Kyiv (45%), and gains in western areas, specially in Livivska (16%). We also find reductions in female and young populations across the country, and increases in male and older populations in central and western regions. We identify likely settlement areas in some countries (Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Italy, Germany and Spain), noting that Ukrainian refugees are less likely to remain in countries which have recorded large refugee influxes but lack of local social networks, such as Romania and Turkey. We also reveal the potential impact of refugees moving to areas with old population structures and low unemployment. Yet, these impacts appear to differ across countries.

Assessing internal displacement patterns in Ukraine during the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022

“…Some oblasts have lost much population (e.g., Kyiv, Kharikivska, Odeska, Donestska) while others have hosted more new populations, including Zakarpatska and Lvivska. The findings are consistent with previous research conducted on social media data 17,18 . They discovered that there were massive evacuations of major cities in the first few weeks of the conflict and that displaced persons moved from east to west during this time.…”

“…In the case of the IDPs during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) conducted telephone interviews in the early stages of the conflict 16 . In addition, scholars have leveraged social media data and satellite images to estimate displaced population movements [17][18][19] . Our analysis expands the previous efforts of IDP flow analysis by developing and showcasing a framework for tracking and visualizing up-to-date displaced population flows with fine-grained smartphone GPS data.…”

Ukrainian Refugee Crisis under the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Influences, Reflections and Suggestions on Europe

“…As of 17 August 2022, Poland recorded more than 1.2 million Ukrainian refugees (UNHCR 2022b). Other neighboring countries also recorded large numbers of refugees: Moldova (89+ thousand), Slovakia (87+ thousand), Romania (84+ thousand) and Hungary (28+ thousand) [2].…”

Using Digital Trace Data to Monitor Human Mobility and Support Rapid Humanitarian Responses

“…Geographically granular data in real time are critical to monitor population displacement and support the provision of humanitarian aid where it is needed (Rowe, Neville, and González-Leonardo 2022) . Traditional data systems are not regularly updated, costly and characterised by slow data collection and release (Green, Pollock, and Rowe 2021) .…”