Sensitive intervention points in the post-carbon transition

Abstract

Conventional approaches to mitigating climate change are not working. Despite the actions pledged under the 2015 Paris Agreement, actual progress is falling well short (1). Given limited time and resources, traditional efforts, such as the climate stabilization wedge approach, are unlikely to be effective on their own (2). Physical science has shown how complex adaptive systems can cross critical thresholds ("tipping points") (3), such that a relatively small change can trigger a larger change that becomes irreversible (4), and where nonlinear feedback effects act as amplifiers ( 5). We propose to examine how to exploit similar sensitive intervention points (SIPs) and amplification mechanisms in socioeconomic, technological, and political systems to advance climate change mitigation. We focus on research and policies in which an intervention kicks or shifts the system so that the initial change is amplified by feedback effects that deliver outsized impact.

Breaking the Bond: Primary Markets and Carbon-Intensive Financing

“…Portfolio flows must be decarbonised well before 2050 to avoid carbon lock-in and reduce systemic climate risk (Quigley et al, 2020). A system-wide focus on primary markets by investors could act as a Sensitive Invention Point in the net zero carbon transition (Farmer et al, 2019). For example, the introduction of primary market metrics into reporting frameworks could accelerate the pricing of climate externalities in primary markets and amplify pressure on companies to remain eligible for Paris-aligned finance.…”

On the discovery and enactment of positive socio-ecological tipping points: insights from energy systems interventions in Bangladesh and Indonesia

“…This is a government-sponsored programme that eventually resulted in 4.5 million SHS installations, for around 14% of the rural population in offgrid areas, using micro-credit and market strategies (World Bank, 2018; World Bank Group and Lighting Global 2018). In the case of Indonesia, we studied the work of grassroots organisations in the alternative development, with eventual government support, of decentralised biogas technologies (Tàbara et al 2019;Devisscher et al 2017;Rumah Energi 2020). These two national governance contexts are very different.…”

“…Reflect whether a dualistic or holistic position is being taken in relation to (non-)human worlds or other systems. Thus, whilst it is possible to consider that 'we are all part of one total single system' (Boulding 1985); or 'everything is inside the system'; or 'we are the system', we should acknowledge that different positions will inevitably affect, and will be directly affected by, personal attitudes, and worldviews held when approaching such systems. • Epistemologies: decide what kind of relationships and which interpretative tools and methods we wish to engage with in order to understand or intervene in our system of reference.…”

“…In recent times, the concept of leverage points, as originally formulated by Donella Meadows (1999), has regained a lot of attention within sustainability transformations research and practice (O'Brien 2018; Leventon et al 2021;FOLU 2021). Related to that, other concepts such as positive tipping points (Tàbara et al 2018;Lenton 2020), sensitive interventions (Farmer et al 2019), social tipping points (Otto et al 2020), or transformational tipping points (van Ginkel et al 2020;O'Riordan 2013) are being used, especially when dealing with global challenges, such as the need for rapid global decarbonisation. However, this literature is not exempt from notable confusions (Leventon et al 2021), conflicting interpretations of the same study areas, or even of different realities that refer to the same concept.…”

Glimmers of hope: a global Green New Deal is feasible

“…Here, I claim that there are good reasons to believe that pos itive sociotechnical tipping dynamics can enable the adoption of GNDs around the globe (Sharpe and Lenton 2021). There are not only climate tipping points (Lenton et al 2019) that may trig ger irreversible changes due to relatively small changes in the system, but also sociotechnical ones that could accelerate the transformation of our societies (Farmer et al 2019, Otto et al 2020, Sharpe et al 2021. In essence, feedback effects may not only create vicious, but also virtuous cycles of change, and such interactions within and between different sociotechnical subsys tems can lead to rapid transformation in line with meeting the 1.5 °C target (Nyborg et al 2016, Farmer et al 2019, Fesenfeld 2020).…”