Sensitivity Analysis of The Long-Term Evolution of the Space Debris Population in Leo

Dolado-Perez, J.C.; Revelin, Bruno; Di-Costanzo, Romain

doi:10.1016/s2468-8967(16)30035-0

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…T ∞ is a function of the solar proxy F (see Equation 3), so the fitting range is defined by F . Generally, the long-term predictions for F -based on various numbers of previous solar cycles -remain between F ∈ [60, 230] sfu (Vallado and Finkleman, 2014;Dolado-Perez et al, 2015;Radtke and Stoll, 2016). This translates into T ∞ ∈ [669, 1321] K, as F per definition remains in the same range as F .…”

Section: Variable Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extension of the King-Hele orbit contraction method for accurate, semi-analytical propagation of non-circular orbits

Frey

Colombo

Lemmens

2019

Advances in Space Research

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Numerical integration of orbit trajectories for a large number of initial conditions and for long time spans is computationally expensive. Semi-analytical methods were developed to reduce the computational burden. An elegant and widely used method of semi-analytically integrating trajectories of objects subject to atmospheric drag was proposed by King-Hele (KH). However, the analytical KH contraction method relies on the assumption that the atmosphere density decays strictly exponentially with altitude. If the actual density profile does not satisfy the assumption of a fixed scale height, as is the case for Earth's atmosphere, the KH method introduces potentially large errors for non-circular orbit configurations.In this work, the KH method is extended to account for such errors by using a newly introduced atmosphere model derivative. By superimposing exponentially decaying partial atmospheres, the superimposed KH method can be applied accurately while considering more complex density profiles. The KH method is further refined by deriving higher order terms during the series expansion. A variable boundary condition to choose the appropriate eccentricity regime, based on the series truncation errors, is introduced. The accuracy of the extended analytical contraction method is shown to be comparable to numerical Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Propagation using the proposed method compares well against non-averaged integration of the dynamics, while the computational load remains very low.

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Section: Variable Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extension of the King-Hele orbit contraction method for accurate, semi-analytical propagation of non-circular orbits

Frey

Colombo

Lemmens

2019

Advances in Space Research

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“…For space debris evolution, the divided cube size is given as 10 km. However, it has been queried by CNES for the effects on evolution results from the divided cube size [20,21]. In I-CUBE model, we assume that collision probability exists in all close approaches with a distance from the target satisfying the threshold.…”

Section: Collision Probability Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some of these models have been used to study the stability of the future space environment in the joint research organized by Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) [9,10]. Besides, further work on the uncertainties affecting the long-term evolution of space debris is encouraged in international community to better asses the uncertainty induced by the modelling assumptions [11]. Therefore, more space debris evolution models are welcomed to participate in such research activities, which may provide the technical supports for making new space debris mitigation guidelines as well as other related policies for space traffic management to guarantee the long-term sustainability of outer space activities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Introduction to a New Space Debris Evolution Model: SOLEM

Wang

Jing

2019

Advances in Astronomy

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“…Although today catastrophic collisions in space are still relatively rare, a gradual transition from the linear increase in the space debris population by entering new objects to the exponential increase by the onset of Kessler syndrome is possible. Several studies are currently investigating the instability, especially of the LEO population [33,34]. Due to the high spatial debris density at 800 km altitude, it is expected that the Kessler syndrome will occur at these altitudes.…”

Section: Kessler Syndrome and Mega-constellationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Survey of the Current Activities in the Field of Modeling the Space Debris Environment at TU Braunschweig

et al. 2018

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Abstract:The Institute of Space Systems at Technische Universität Braunschweig has long-term experience in the field of space debris modeling. This article reviews the current state of ongoing research in this area. Extensive activities are currently underway to update the European space debris model MASTER. In addition to updating the historical population, the future evolution of the space debris environment is also being investigated. The competencies developed within these activities are used to address current problems with regard to the possibility of an increasing number of catastrophic collisions. Related research areas include, for example, research in the field of orbit determination and the simulation of sensor systems for the acquisition and cataloging of orbital objects. In particular, the ability to provide simulated measurement data for object populations in almost all size ranges is an important prerequisite for these investigations. Some selected results on the distribution of space debris on Earth orbit are presented in terms of spatial density. Furthermore, specific fragmentation events will be discussed.

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Sensitivity Analysis of The Long-Term Evolution of the Space Debris Population in Leo

Cited by 9 publications

References 9 publications

Extension of the King-Hele orbit contraction method for accurate, semi-analytical propagation of non-circular orbits

Extension of the King-Hele orbit contraction method for accurate, semi-analytical propagation of non-circular orbits

An Introduction to a New Space Debris Evolution Model: SOLEM

Survey of the Current Activities in the Field of Modeling the Space Debris Environment at TU Braunschweig

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