Sensitivity Analysis on Predictive Capability of SIRD Model for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Abstract

SIR model is one of the simplest methods used in prediction of endemic/pandemic outbreaks. We examined SIRD model for development of COVID-19 in Kuwait which was started on 24 February 2020 by 5 patients in Kuwait. This paper investigates sensitivity of SIRD model for development of COVID-19 in Kuwait based on duration of progressed days of data. For Kuwait, we have fitted SIRD model to COVID-19 data for 20, 40, 60, 80, 100, and 116 days of data and assessed sensitivity of the model with number of days of data. The parameters of SIRD model are obtained using an optimization algorithm (lsqcurvefit) in MATLAB. The total population of 50,000 is equally applied for all Kuwait time intervals. Results of SIRD model indicates that after 40 days the peak infectious day can be adequately predicted; althogh, error percentage from sensetivity analysis indicates that different exposed population sizes are not correctly predicted. SIRD type models are too simple to robustly capture all features of COVID-19 and more precise methods are needed to tackle nonlinear dynamics of a pandemic.

Nonlinear control of Covid-19 pandemic based on the SIRD model

“…They estimated a peak by the late March with over thousands of seven hundreds of confirmed cases. Sedaghat et al [8] performed the sensitivity analysis on the predictive capability of the SIRD model. In 2020, Mahmoudi et al [9] categorized high risk countries based on the spread rate of Covid-19.…”

“…To present the effects of control laws on preventing the spread of epidemics, we use real data [8] as a case study. Table 2 represents the coefficients of the SIRD model [8].…”

“…To present the effects of control laws on preventing the spread of epidemics, we use real data [8] as a case study. Table 2 represents the coefficients of the SIRD model [8]. In this table, removing rate and Re-production number 8 are defined as follows, respectively.…”

“…For more details, see Ref. [8]. The values of the parameters related to 116 days have been used in this study as the values of the model parameters are gradually modified over a period of 116 days.…”