Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach

DeVuyst, Eric A.; Preckel, Paul V.

doi:10.1016/0161-8938(95)00145-x

Cited by 108 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…The recently developed Gaussian Quadrature approach of DeVuyst and Preckel (1997) provides an attractive alternative. These authors show that an approximate distribution can be obtained based on known lower order moments of the parameters of a model, and that selectively solving the model based on the moments of this approximate distribution generates sensitivity results consistent with those of the Monte Carlo approach, with much more efficient use of computing time.…”

Section: Simulation and Ssamentioning

confidence: 99%

How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?

et al. 2007

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Computable General Equilibrium models, widely used for the analysis of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are often criticized for having poor econometric foundations. This paper improves the linkage between econometric estimates of key parameters and their usage in CGE analysis in order to better evaluate the likely outcome of a Free Trade Area of the Americas. Our econometric work focuses on estimation of a particular parameter, the elasticity of substitution among imports from different countries, which is especially critical for evaluating the positive and normative outcomes of FTAs. We match the data in the econometric exercise to the policy experiment at hand, and employ both point estimates and standard errors from the estimates.The FTAA analysis then takes explicit account of the degree of uncertainty in the underlying parameters. We sample from a distribution of parameter values given by our econometric estimates in order to generate a distribution of model results, from which we can construct confidence intervals. We find that imports increase in all regions of the world as a result of the FTAA, and this outcome is robust to variation in the trade elasticities. Ten of the thirteen FTAA regions experience a welfare gain in which we are more than 95% confident. We conclude that there is great potential for combining econometric work with CGE-based policy analysis in order to produce a richer set of results that are likely to prove more satisfying to the sophisticated policy maker. (Financial Times, 2003)

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Section: Simulation and Ssamentioning

confidence: 99%

How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?

et al. 2007

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“…However, it is impractical for large scale models. Therefore, we adopt the Gaussian Quadrature approach proposed by DeVuyst and Preckel (1997), who show that it is highly efficient and a very close approximation to full-blown Monte Carlo analysis of a similar, global CGE model. Here, we follow the implementation by Pearson and Arndt (2000).…”

Section: Ex Ante Analysis Of Eu and Us Biofuel Programsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Impacts of Biofuel Mandates

Hertel¹,

Tyner²,

Birur³

2010

The Energy Journal

199

100

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“…Mediante el modelo se podía entonces inferir la distribución de probabilidad de las variables de salida vinculadas a la distribución de las perturbaciones de entrada. Esto se obtuvo realizando varias veces la simulación con distintos valores de entrada, mediante la técnica de cuadratura estadística de Stroud (Stroud, 1957;DeVuyst y Preckel, 1997). En consecuencia, no solo se produce información acerca de los valores centrales para todas las variables de salida, sino también sobre otros momentos estadísticos, como la desviación estándar.…”

Section: R E V I S T a C E P A L 1 1 1 • D I C I E M B R E 2 0 1 3 Ununclassified

Un sistema de modelamiento para evaluar las consecuencias económicas del cambio climático en el Caribe

Roson¹

2013

Revista De La CEPAL

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Sensitivity analysis revisited: A quadrature-based approach

Cited by 108 publications

References 5 publications

How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?

How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?

The Global Impacts of Biofuel Mandates

Un sistema de modelamiento para evaluar las consecuencias económicas del cambio climático en el Caribe

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