Sensitivity exploration of water balance in scenarios of future changes: a case study in an Andean regulated river basin

Avilés, Álex; Palacios, Karina; Pacheco, Jheimy; Jimenez, Stalin; Zhiña, Darío; Delgado, Omar

doi:10.1007/s00704-020-03219-y

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…The analysis through short-, middle-, and long term periods entails an uncertainty with each period. A main source of uncertainty is the multiple outputs after downscaling the processes of several climate models [41]. Although, we focused on short-, middle-, and long-term annual averages, extreme events, such as prolonged droughts, can have a profound effect on water availability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This method was applied because it adjusts the mean of the values and the shape of the distribution without modifying the chronological structure of the time series [31]. Moreover, it has been widely used by [11,31,41,42]. Climate data from the PISCO precipitation and temperature products were used for downscaling purposes as the observed data for the period 1981-2016, with an adjustment of the average ensemble data for 2017-2099.…”

Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Present and Future Water Security under Anthropogenic and Climate Changes Using WEAP Model in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Catchment, Cusco, Perú

Goyburo

Rau

Lavado‐Casimiro

et al. 2023

Water

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Water is an essential resource for social and economic development. The availability of this resource is constantly threatened by the rapid increase in its demand. This research assesses current (2010–2016), short- (2017–2040), middle- (2041–2070), and long-term (2071–2099) levels of water security considering socio-economic and climate change scenarios using the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) in Vilcanota-Urubamba (VUB) catchment. The streamflow data of the Pisac hydrometric station were used to calibrate (1987–2006) and validate (2007–2016) the WEAP Model applied to the VUB region. The Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values were 0.60 and 0.84 for calibration and validation, respectively. Different scenarios were generated for socio-economic factors (population growth and increased irrigation efficiency) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system. The results reveal that water availability is much higher than the current demand in the VUB for the period (2010–2016). For short-, middle- and long term, two scenarios were considered, “Scenario 1” (RCP 4.5) and “Scenario 2” (RCP 8.5). Climate change scenarios show that water availability will increase. However, this increase will not cover the future demands in all the sub-basins because water availability is not evenly distributed in all of the VUB. In both scenarios, an unmet demand was detected from 2050. For the period 2071–2099, an unmet demand of 477 hm3/year for “Scenario 1” and 446 hm3/year for “Scenario 2” were estimated. Because population and agricultural demands are the highest, the effects of reducing the growth rate and improving the irrigation structure were simulated. Therefore, two more scenarios were generated “Scenario 3” (RCP 4.5 with management) and “Scenario 4” (RCP 8.5 with management). This socio-economic management proved to be effective in reducing the unmet demand up to 50% in all sub-basins for the period 2071–2099.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Present and Future Water Security under Anthropogenic and Climate Changes Using WEAP Model in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Catchment, Cusco, Perú

Goyburo

Rau

Lavado‐Casimiro

et al. 2023

Water

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“…Kirilov and Bournaski (2019) published the steps to perform water balance modelling based on describing relevant computational aspects of water movement through the water cycle. Avilés et al (2020) used the WEAP model to evaluate the system's water balance by considering the allocation of available water to satisfy the demands of the different sectors. Bozorgy et al (2012) used the WEAP model to estimate the amount of water lost by an existing irrigation infrastructure and the amount of water that could be saved by modernising the scheme.…”

Section: Weapmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water balance calculation capability of hydrological models

Tran

Feher

2022

AAK

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Currently, in the world, there are many different hydrological models built and developed to solve problems related to the hydrological cycle. Each model has its specific mathematical foundations to describe physical processes in nature. Therefore, each model has its various characteristics: setting up the model, input data requirements, model calibration and verification, and output results. Water balance is still playing an important role in the effective management and use of water resources for agriculture. Based on the results of the hydrological parameter’s calculation, the water balance of the study basin can be calculated by the user or by the separated module of each model. Each hydrological models have its advantages and disadvantages. However, it is impossible to simulate hydrological processes and water balance completely accurately in nature. Still, simulation results can give us a view of the changing trend of hydrological components and the water balance. Model developers are gradually completing the shortcomings and improving the efficiency and accuracy so that the model can simulate reality with the highest accuracy. This paper sets out to review the fifteen hydrological models currently widely used in the world. Within the frame of the present study, some models are only briefly introduced; the rest are considered in more detail, from more aspects, from specific examples so that readers can decide for themselves which model is suitable for their study area and simulation needs, especially in the identity of the complex and unpredictable impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector.

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“…This accentuated gradient is a characteristic of the Ecuadorian mountain range. Rainfall observations are available in two stations in the Machángara Alto and Chulco river sub-basins [6], namely, Chanlud and El Labrado stations. The seasonality of rainfall in the two stations is shown in Fig.…”

Section: A Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The Assessment of Rainfall Prediction Using Climate Models Results and Projections under Future Scenarios: the Machángara Tropical Andean Basin Case

Vázquez‐Patiño¹,

Vázquez-Peña²,

Avilés³

2021

International Journal on Advanced Science, Engineering and Information Technology

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Sensitivity exploration of water balance in scenarios of future changes: a case study in an Andean regulated river basin

Cited by 8 publications

References 73 publications

Assessment of Present and Future Water Security under Anthropogenic and Climate Changes Using WEAP Model in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Catchment, Cusco, Perú

Assessment of Present and Future Water Security under Anthropogenic and Climate Changes Using WEAP Model in the Vilcanota-Urubamba Catchment, Cusco, Perú

Water balance calculation capability of hydrological models

The Assessment of Rainfall Prediction Using Climate Models Results and Projections under Future Scenarios: the Machángara Tropical Andean Basin Case

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