Sensitivity of horizontal resolution and land surface model in operational WRF forecast for Online Nuclear Emergency Response System (ONERS)

Abstract

Accurate Meteorological forecasts are crucial for the assessment of plume dispersion and dose prediction in nuclear power plant (NPP) sites. In this work the forecast sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is tested by running a series of forecast simulations for horizontal resolution, and land surface models (LSM) in the context of Online Nuclear Emergency Response System (ONERS) for Indian NPP sites. 72 h forecast simulations are made for three seasons viz. summer, southeast and northeast monsoon using the Global Forecast data. Three simulation experiments, namely 2 km-NOAH, 3 km-NOAH and 3 km-NOAHMP are conducted using two different nested domain configurations (18–6–2 km and 9–3 km) and two LSM schemes (NOAH and NOAH-MP) and tested at four different NPP sites. Forecast comparison of surface winds, relative humidity, temperature, heat fluxes and planetary boundary layer heights with data from meteorological tower, radiosonde and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2) shows 3 km-NOAH is equally capable in predicting surface parameters as well as vertical profiles compared to 2 km-NOAH with marginal differences. 3 km-NOAHMP shows less mean bias and better correlation for boundary layer height and heat fluxes. Comparison of spatial flow-field with 5th generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) data shows synoptic scale seasonal winds, sea level pressure systems and temperature hot-spots are better captured by 3 km-NOAHMP compared to 6 km coarse domain in the 18–6–2 km configuration. The daily accumulated rainfall by all simulations is overestimated compared to ERA5 data. The predictions by 3 km-NOAHMP better agree with Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM-IMERGE) data whereas 2 km-NOAH predicts delayed rainfall occurrence. Dispersion simulations of hypothetical plume release from a coastal NPP site with all three forecasts properly show the influence of local scale diurnal land-sea breeze and seasonal winds on the plume movement. Therefore the 9–3 km domain with NOAHMP LSM is found to be a suitable choice for operational weather forecast in ONERS for Indian NPP sites.