Sensitivity of polar ozone to sea surface temperatures and halogen amounts

Austin, J.; Wilson, R. J.

doi:10.1029/2009jd013292

Cited by 30 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…CNRM‐ACM and LMDZrepro have a common chemical scheme and their results are very similar. AMTRAC3 and UMETRAC share a common chemical solver, and although the halogen parameterization has been changed for AMTRAC3 [ Austin and Wilson , 2010] the results are also very similar.…”

Section: Evolution Of the Ozone Holementioning

confidence: 99%

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Austin¹,

Struthers²,

Scinocca³

et al. 2010

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.

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Section: Evolution Of the Ozone Holementioning

confidence: 99%

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Austin¹,

Struthers²,

Scinocca³

et al. 2010

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…CM3 simulates the atmospheric distributions of 97 chemical species interacting via 236 reactions throughout the model domain. Stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry are simulated seamlessly by combining the stratospheric chemistry formulation of Austin and Wilson (2010) and the tropospheric chemistry mechanism of Horowitz et al (2003;. Naik et al (2013) and Austin et al (2013) provide detailed descriptions and evaluations of the model's tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, respectively.…”

Section: Chemistry-climate Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: An observation-based review

Cooper

Parrish

Ziemke

et al. 2014

Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene

492

446

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Tropospheric ozone plays a major role in Earth's atmospheric chemistry processes and also acts as an air pollutant and greenhouse gas. Due to its short lifetime, and dependence on sunlight and precursor emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources, tropospheric ozone's abundance is highly variable in space and time on seasonal, interannual and decadal time-scales. Recent, and sometimes rapid, changes in observed ozone mixing ratios and ozone precursor emissions inspired us to produce this up-to-date overview of tropospheric ozone's global distribution and trends. Much of the text is a synthesis of in situ and remotely sensed ozone observations reported in the peer-reviewed literature, but we also include some new and extended analyses using well-known and referenced datasets to draw connections between ozone trends and distributions in different regions of the world. In addition, we provide a brief evaluation of the accuracy of rural or remote surface ozone trends calculated by three state-of-the-science chemistry-climate models, the tools used by scientists to fill the gaps in our knowledge of global tropospheric ozone distribution and trends.

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“…For CH 4 and N 2 O, concentrations for chemistry below 800 hPa are restored to historical or RCP values , with a timestep of 1 day. For ODS, volume mixing ratios are prescribed as a lower boundary condition, with the source of reactive chlorine and bromine in the stratosphere parameterized following Austin and Wilson (2010). The impact of climate change on CH 4 emissions from wetlands (and any other natural sources); from wildfires; and from other biogenic precursors to OH which can influence the CH 4 lifetime (such as NMVOC and soil nitrogen oxide emissions); are not included.…”

Section: Model Description and Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH from 1860–2100

et al. 2012

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Abstract. With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH 4 ) since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH 4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH, (τ CH4 OH ), in a suite of historical (1860-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations , conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3). From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5 % increase in τ CH4 OH due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NO x ) emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the τ CH4 OH declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH 4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH 4 sink. Sensitivity simulations with CM3 suggest that the aerosol indirect effect (aerosolcloud interactions) plays a significant role in cooling the CM3 climate. The projected decline in aerosols under all RCPs contributes to climate warming over the 21st century, which influences the future evolution of OH concentration and τ CH4 OH . Projected changes in τ CH4 OH from 2006 to 2100 range from −13 % to +4 %. The only projected increase occurs in the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5) due to the near-doubling of the CH 4 abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. The largest decrease occurs in the RCP4.5 scenario due to changes in short-lived climate forcing agents which reinforce climate warming and enhance OH. This decrease is more-than-halved in a sensitivity simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gas radiative forcing changes along the RCP4.5 scenario (5 % vs. 13 %).

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Sensitivity of polar ozone to sea surface temperatures and halogen amounts

Cited by 30 publications

References 56 publications

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Chemistry‐climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone

Global distribution and trends of tropospheric ozone: An observation-based review

Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH from 1860–2100

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