Inaccuracy and Suitability of Analytical Models (AM)"All models are inaccurate, but some of them are useful," or "... all models are inaccurate; the practical question is how inaccurate should they be in order to be useful" − these are oft-quoted statements of the familiar British mathematician George E. P. Box [2], V. Pareto's's principle "there are few significant factors, but trivial factors abound" ("principle 20/80") has pointed the way to more precise definition of AM: significant factors (20%) should be evaluated possibly more accurately, and the inaccurate ones (80%) with a much lower accuracy. To evaluate the importance of some factor, it must be determined just how sensitive the modeling system (in geotechnics, this is the "bed-foundation-structure") is to variations in this factor [3].These statements are critical to geotechnics, where building/structure settlements calculated in accordance with recommendations set forth in standard documents may be two-three times lower than actual values [4], and a deviation of 1.5 times is considered successful, and where conservative design solutions predominate; foundation failures are therefore extremely rare. Conservatism and wastefulness, however, are not always identified with enhanced reliability, and are not a replacement for scientificbased search for optimization of design solutions.In this connection, let us examine three AM of pile foundations, which are recommended in [1], from the standpoint of inaccuracy, usefulness, and importance of assumptions adopted, and the sensitivity of the "bed-foundation-structure" system.
Methods for Analysis of Pile Foundations [1 and 5]The AM of a "conventional" foundation is inaccurate, but is widely used in design. The inaccuracy consists in the fact that there is no finite compressible stratum H under the tips of the piles, but Several methods for the design of pile foundations, including those recommended in Building Code 50-102-2003 [1], are analyzed,. Tests of a model of a pile foundation in a pan with freeze-frame photographs of the displacements of sand grains, and their digital processing by the method of particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) are described. A method of analyzing a rigid spatial pile foundation with "high-" and "low-profile" rafts of arbitrary planform, which makes it possible to obtain a uniform load distribution on the piles without use of finite-element software is proposed on the basis of experimental results. The method is implemented in the form of design software in the MathCad system. Examples of the analysis are presented.