Sensitivity of the Kolyma River Runoff to Modern Climate Change

Abstract

The Kolyma River is a large river in the continuous permafrost zone. Its basin is subject to significant climatic changes. An information-modeling complex ECOMAG is employed for the study of water regime features and dynamics. ECOMAG calculates daily water flow rates at specified points based on meteorological data with a one-day resolution.This study analyzes the actual dynamics of water runoff and runoff-forming factors during the period from 1979 to 2013. A physical-mathematical model is adapted for the Kolyma River basin. Furthermore, the study examines the sensitivity of water regime characteristics to changing climate parameters. Calibration and verification demonstrated the ECOMAG’s ability to accurately reproduce observed water discharges for two points on the Kolyma River and the satisfactory performance on its tributary, the Bolshoy Anyui River. The ECOMAG model was for the first time employed for the Kolyma River basin, thus allowing the investigation of climate-related runoff changes. The preliminary statistical analysis revealed that if the average hydrological characteristics in the Kolyma River basin from 2000 to 2013 are compared with those from 1979 to 1999 a 5,1% rise of annual river runoff is evident for the Kolymskoye river section 283 km upstream the Kolyma River mouth (from 99,4 km3 in 1979-1999 up to 104,5 km3 in 2000-2013). The ECOMAG model also effectively captures changes in the annual water runoff and its intra-annual distribution.A rise in the mean annual air temperature by 1,3°C is characteristic of the modern time period. According to weather station data, the air temperature in March, April, November, and December increased by more than 2,5°C. The total annual precipitation increased by 8,3%, with September and March experiencing the most pronounced growth.To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms governing the Kolyma River’s response to climate changes, the sensitivity of water runoff characteristics to air temperature and precipitation changes was analyzed using the ECOMAG model to generate artificial meteorological data series. The study demonstrates that water discharge is more sensitive to a 5% increase in precipitation than to a 1ºС rise in air temperature.