Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

Lim, Young‐Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Lee, Myong‐In; Molod, Andrea; Suárez, Max J.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00104.1

Cited by 54 publications

(58 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…Two time steps after the minimum SLP was obtained; the storm was not detected any more due to a slight increase in wind shear. In a recent study, Lim et al [] suggested that a resolution of 0.5° is not suitable to investigate TCs in a global framework, but a grid of 0.25° or smaller is needed. Zarzycki and Jablonowski [] used a 1° resolution for simulations with the Community Atmosphere Model and embedded a 0.25° grid for the region around a TC once it is detected during the Atlantic hurricane season (June–November).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

et al. 2015

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To date, the radiative impact of dust and the Saharan air layer (SAL) on North Atlantic hurricane activity is not yet known. According to previous studies, dust stabilizes the atmosphere due to absorption of solar radiation but thus shifts convection to regions more conducive for hurricane genesis. Here we analyze differences in hurricane genesis and frequency from ensemble sensitivity simulations with radiatively active and inactive dust in the aerosol‐climate model ECHAM6‐HAM. We investigate dust burden and other hurricane‐related variables and determine their influence on disturbances which develop into hurricanes (developing disturbances, DDs) and those which do not (nondeveloping disturbances, NDDs). Dust and the SAL are found to potentially have both inhibiting and supporting influences on background conditions for hurricane genesis. A slight southward shift of DDs is determined when dust is active as well as a significant warming of the SAL, which leads to a strengthening of the vertical circulation associated with the SAL. The dust burden of DDs is smaller in active dust simulations compared to DDs in simulations with inactive dust, while NDDs contain more dust in active dust simulations. However, no significant influence of radiatively active dust on other variables in DDs and NDDs is found. Furthermore, no substantial change in the DD and NDD frequency due to the radiative effects of dust can be detected.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

et al. 2015

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“…While it is clear that simply increasing the resolution does not necessarily improve intensity distribution (Shaevitz et al 2014), results from the HWG simulations indicate that a very significant improvement in a GCM's ability to simulate both TC formation and intensity occurs at resolutions finer than 50 km, with good results shown at 25 km (Strachan et al 2013;Roberts et al 2015;Lim et al 2015;Wehner et al 2015;Mei et al 2014). In addition, if such high resolution is employed, it is possible to simulate reasonably well the observed intensity distribution of tropical cyclones (Bender et al 2010;Lavender and Walsh 2011; Murakami et al 2012b;Chen et al 2013;Zarzycki and Jablonowski 2014).…”

Section: Simulation Of the Intensity Distribut Ion Of Tr O Pical Cyclmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Decreases in future numbers of tropical cyclones are shown for all experiments irrespective of the choice of convection scheme. Note that there also appears to be considerable sensitivity of tropical cyclone formation to the specification of the minimum entrainment rate (Lim et al 2015). As this is decreased (equivalent to turning off the cumulus parameterization), the number of tropical cyclones increases.…”

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confidence: 99%

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

Walsh

Camargo

Vecchi

et al. 2015

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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172

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Although a theory of the climatology of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, high-resolution climate models can now simulate many aspects of tropical cyclone climate. T he effect of climate change on tropical cyclones has been a controversial scientific issue for a number of years. Advances in our theoretical understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclones have been made, enabling us to understand better the links between the mean climate and the potential intensity (PI; the theoretical maximum intensity of a tropical cyclone for a given climate condition) of tropical cyclones. Improvements in the capabilities of climate models, the main tool used to predict future climate, have enabled them to achieve a considerably improved and more credible simulation of the present-day climatology of tropical cyclones. Finally, the increasing ability of such models to predict the interannual variability of tropical cyclone formation in various regions of the globe indicates that they are capturing some of the essential physical relationships governing the links between climate and tropical cyclones. HURRICANES AND CLIMATEPrevious climate model simulations, however, have suggested some ambiguity in projections of future numbers of tropical cyclones in a warmer world. While many models have projected fewer tropical cyclones globally (Sugi et al. 2002;Bengtsson et al. 2007b; Gualdi et al. 2008; Knutson et al. 2010), other climate models and related downscaling methods have suggested some increase in future numbers (e.g., Broccoli and Manabe 1990;Haarsma et al. 1993; Emanuel 2013a). When future projections for individual basins are made, the issue becomes more serious: for example, for the Atlantic basin there appears to be little consensus on the future number of tropical cyclones or on the relative importance of forcing factors such as aerosols or increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. One reason could be statistical: annual numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are relatively small, making the identification of such storms sensitive to the detection method used.Further, there is substantial spread in projected responses of regional tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity over the twenty-first century from downscaling studies (Knutson et al. 2007; Emanuel 2013a). Interpreting the sources of those differences is complicated by different projections of large-scale climate and by differences in the present-day reference period and sea surface temperature (SST) datasets used. A natural question is whether the diversity in responses to projected twenty-firstcentury climate of each of the studies is primarily | a reflection of uncertainty arising from different large-scale forcing (as has been suggested by, e.g., Villarini et al. 2011;Villarini and Vecchi 2012;Knutson et al. 2013) or whether this spread reflects principally different inherent sensitivities across the various downscaling techniques, even including different sensitivity of responses within the same model due to...

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“…While it is clear that simply increasing the resolution does not necessarily improve intensity distribution (Shaevitz et al 2014), results from the HWG simulations indicate that a very significant improvement in a GCM's ability to simulate both TC formation and intensity occurs at resolutions finer than 50 km, with good results shown at 25 km (Strachan et al 2013;Roberts et al 2015;Lim et al 2015;Wehner et al 2015;Mei et al 2014). In addition, if such high resolution is employed, it is possible to simulate reasonably well the observed intensity distribution of tropical cyclones (Bender et al 2010;Lavender and Walsh 2011; Murakami et al 2012b;Knutson 2013;Chen et al 2013;Zarzycki and Jablonowski 2014).…”

Section: Simulation Of the Intensity Distribut Ion Of Tr O Pical Cyclmentioning

confidence: 97%

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

Walsh¹,

Camargo²,

Vecchi³

et al. 2015

Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

T he effect of climate change on tropical cyclones has been a controversial scientific issue for a number of years. Advances in our theoretical understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclones have been made, enabling us to understand better the links between the mean climate and the potential intensity (PI; the theoretical maximum intensity of a tropical cyclone for a given climate condition) of tropical cyclones. Improvements in the capabilities of climate models, the main tool used to predict future climate, have enabled them to achieve a considerably improved and more credible simulation of the present-day climatology of tropical cyclones. Finally, the increasing ability of such models to predict the interannual variability of tropical cyclone formation in various regions of the globe indicates that they are capturing some of the essential physical relationships governing the links between climate and tropical cyclones.Previous climate model simulations, however, have suggested some ambiguity in projections of future numbers of tropical cyclones in a warmer world. While many models have projected fewer tropical cyclones globally (Sugi et al. 2002;Bengtsson et al. 2007b; Gualdi et al. 2008; Knutson et al. 2010), other climate models and related downscaling methods have suggested some increase in future numbers (e.g., Broccoli and Manabe 1990;Haarsma et al. 1993; Emanuel 2013a). When future projections for individual basins are made, the issue becomes more serious: for example, for the Atlantic basin there appears to be little consensus on the future number of tropical cyclones (Knutson et al. 2010) or on the relative importance of forcing factors such as aerosols or increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration. One reason could be statistical: annual numbers of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are relatively small, making the identification of such storms sensitive to the detection method used.Further, there is substantial spread in projected responses of regional tropical cyclone (TC) frequency and intensity over the twenty-first century from downscaling studies (Knutson et al. 2007; Emanuel 2013a). Interpreting the sources of those differences is complicated by different projections of large-scale climate and by differences in the present-day reference period and sea surface temperature (SST) datasets used. A natural question is whether the diversity in responses to projected twenty-firstcentury climate of each of the studies is primarily | a reflection of uncertainty arising from different large-scale forcing (as has been suggested by, e.g., Villarini et al. 2011;Villarini and Vecchi 2012;Knutson et al. 2013) or whether this spread reflects principally different inherent sensitivities across the various downscaling techniques, even including different sensitivity of responses within the same model due to, for instance, the use of different convective parameterizations (Kim et al. 2012). A similar set of questions relates to the ability of models to generate observed changes in...

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Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

Cited by 54 publications

References 62 publications

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

The influence of absorbed solar radiation by Saharan dust on hurricane genesis

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

Hurricanes and Climate: The U.S. CLIVAR Working Group on Hurricanes

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