Sensitivity Study of North Atlantic Summer Cyclone Activity in Dynamical Downscaled Simulations

Zhang, Minghong; Perrie, Will; Long, Zhenxia

doi:10.1029/2018jd029766

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…As also stated in the study undertaken by Munsi et al (2021), notwithstanding that the WRF model simulation can reproduce the maximum stages of the cyclone systematically, the initial track should be carefully handled so that the deviation can be minimised. Not only are they the consequences of the forcing data, but the deviations might also stem from the sensitivity parameters of the model itself (Zhang et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

Wahyuni,

Shabrina,

Lobma

et al. 2023

For. Geo.

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This paper studies the simulation of Cyclone Nicholas that occurred close to the coastal area of Western Australia and fell on the mainland of Southwestern Australia. The simulation was conducted via a dynamical downscaling model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), to obtain a higher resolution with reference to the regional climate data. The model simulation is generated using a global reanalysis of climate data for the initial and lateral boundary conditions. We investigated the response of the tropical storm to the model regarding the track and intensity using a modified Kyklop method that appears more appropriate for a landfall cyclone. Our study suggests that the regional climate data computed by the model deviates from the storm track of the global climate data forcing field. In this study, the track of the simulated storm is parallel to the satellite data, but it is shifted slightly to the east, closer to the mainland. Nevertheless, the model simulation can implement the intensity of the storm as strongly as the observation, while the forcing data delivers substantial underestimation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

Wahyuni,

Shabrina,

Lobma

et al. 2023

For. Geo.

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“…Our pragmatic assumption is that the processes resolved by different climate models, explicitly including sub-synoptic and R. E. Danielson et al: Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic larger scales, provide a basis for estimating the future trend in fog occurrence. Contemporary studies, both observed and modelled (Dorman et al, 2017;Zhang and Lewis, 2017;Tardif, 2017;, highlight that fog formation and dissipation are indeed sensitive to these resolved scales. In an attempt to approach the fog-process scales, we apply a regional model downscaling of Hadley Center Earth System model (HadGEM2) global climate simulations (Zhang et al, 2019a, b) to provide an enhanced representation of radiative processes and moist energy transports.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic

Danielson

Zhang

Perrie

2020

Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr.

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Abstract. A conventional parameterization of midlatitude warm fog occurrence, based on in situ observations, is employed to estimate marine surface visibility in the Arctic and North Atlantic from three datasets: an ensemble member of the Hadley Earth System (HadGEM2) model and a nested regional WRF simulation that follow historical and future emissions scenarios for 1979–2100, and the ERA-Interim reanalysis for 1979–2004. Over large scales (of an entire year and region), all three gridded datasets agree well in terms of variables like surface air temperature, whose systematic differences seem small by comparison with its predicted change over the course of this century. On the other hand, systematic differences are more apparent in large-scale estimates of relative humidity and visibility. Large differences are attributed to a sensitivity to representation bias that is inherent in the formulation of each individual model and analysis. Two simple linear calibrations are examined, both of which assume that an in situ based parameterization is broadly consistent with the use of marine (ICOADS) observations of air and dew point temperature as an error-free reference. A single-step calibration is considered that takes the mean and variance of ICOADS frequency distributions as a reference. A two-step calibration is also performed in which ICOADS collocations are taken as a reference for the ERA reanalysis, which in turn is taken as a large-scale reference for the 1979–2004 HadGEM2 and WRF simulations. Both linear calibrations are applied (locally in time and space to air and dew point temperature) to the future climate scenarios of HadGEM2 and WRF. Although ICOADS observations are not error-free and parameterized visibility estimates are unlikely to capture much more than half the variance found in observations, attempts are made to present consistent regional changes in the frequency of high relative humidity, as a proxy for warm fog occurrence. The large-scale decrease in visibility over the 21st century is in the range of 8 %–12 % in the Arctic and 0 %–5 % in the North Atlantic.

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Sensitivity Study of North Atlantic Summer Cyclone Activity in Dynamical Downscaled Simulations

Cited by 2 publications

References 53 publications

Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

Investigation of the Development of Tropical Storm Nicholas based on Global and Regional Climate Data

Possible impacts of climate change on fog in the Arctic and subpolar North Atlantic

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