Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

Dey, Pankaj; Mishra, Ashok Kumar

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.03.014

Cited by 355 publications

(203 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…Figure shows the result of the application of the Tomer and Schilling () framework. The increase in both indexes (excess water and excess evaporative demand), observed most strongly between the first and second decades and also between the second and third decades, almost parallel to the 1:1 line, is associated with vegetation cover loss (as deforestation and removal of perennials; Dey & Mishra, ). From the third to the fourth decade, the decrease in both indexes observed is usually associated with a vegetation cover gain (increased forage, conservation cover, and afforestation) and also exhibits a climate influence (P/PET increase) because the change is almost vertical.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Because annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (PET) may be not stationary in time, the trends in streamflow might be due to changes in climate variability and/or changes in vegetation cover that alter the partitioning of precipitation into runoff and evapotranspiration of the catchments. Numerous methods have been utilized for separating the individual impact of these driving forces, including hydrological modeling and conceptual, experimental and analytical approaches (Dey & Mishra, ; Wang, ). To clarify this question for the IRB, in addition to the analysis of the trends in annual water balance components, we used three different methods: Tomer and Schilling framework (Tomer & Schilling, ); Elasticity‐based method (Schaake, ); Decomposition of Budyko‐type curve method (Wang & Hejazi, ). …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Opposite Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Annual Water Balance in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Cavalcante

Pontes

Souza-Filho

et al. 2019

Water Resources Research

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The hydrological effects of forest cover loss are difficult to discern in the case of large‐scale basins with gradual changes and difficult to isolate when climate variability is also present. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of climate variability and human activity on the annual streamflow in a basin in the Amazon arc of deforestation. We statistically analyzed the components of the annual water balance and monthly streamflow and used the currently used Tomer‐Schilling, elasticity, and decomposition of Budyko‐type curve methods to separate climate‐induced changes and anthropogenic effects. Annual series of the monthly maximum and minimum streamflow, total streamflow, and total reference evapotranspiration presented statistically significant increasing trends. No significant trend was observed for precipitation. The greatest change in the average annual runoff coefficient was observed between the first (1973–1984) and second (1985–1994) analyzed periods. Even with the continuous reduction in the forested area, the third (1994–2004) and fourth analyzed periods (2003–2016) showed only relatively small changes, most likely due to the intensity of slash‐and‐burn activities and vegetation regrowth. The methods showed that deforestation was the primary cause of the streamflow changes, but with different intensities, and a small recuperation was observed in the last analyzed period. On average, the annual water yield would increase between 26% and 58% after the first time interval without the opposite effect of climate variability, which must be considered in basin management. Future research should focus on analyzing the water storage and the dependence of the precipitation‐runoff relationship from the climate.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Opposite Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Annual Water Balance in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Cavalcante

Pontes

Souza-Filho

et al. 2019

Water Resources Research

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show abstract

“…Statistical methods are relatively simple to calculate but lack a physical mechanism. Recently, Budyko-based climate elasticity methods have been widely applied because they include not only simple calculations but also a basic physical mechanism; these methods have proven to be accurate and credible [19].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Runoff Changes Based on Dual Factors in the Upstream Area of Yongding River Basin

Hou

Peng

et al. 2018

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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“…Climate change and human activity are two main factors that influence watershed hydrology (Dey & Mishra, ). Climate change, particularly rising temperatures and changing precipitation regimes, can exert profound impacts on hydrological processes and spatial‐temporal patterns of water resources (Joo, Zhang, Li, & Zheng, ; Lee et al, ; Sunde, He, Hubbart, & Urban, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Separating climate change and human contributions to variations in streamflow and its components using eight time‐trend methods

Zhang

Wang

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Separating impacts of human activities and climate change on hydrology is essential for watershed and ecosystem management. Many previous studies have focused on the impacts on total streamflow, however, with little attentions paid to its components (i.e., baseflow and surface run‐off). This study distinguished the contributions of climate change and human activities to the variations in streamflow, baseflow, and surface run‐off in the upstream area of the Heihe River Basin, a typical inland river basin in northwest China, by using eight different forms of time‐trend methods. The isolated contributions to streamflow variation were also compared with those obtained by two Budyko‐based approaches. Our results showed that the time‐trend methods consistently estimated positive contributions of climate variability and human activities to the increases in streamflow and its components but with obviously varying magnitudes. With regard to streamflow, the time‐trend method double‐mass‐curve–Wei, with a physical basis, produced a reasonable smaller contribution of human activities than climate changes, inconsistent with the Budyko‐based approaches. However, all the other time‐trend methods led to contrary results. The contributions to baseflow variation diverged more significantly than those to streamflow and surface run‐off, ranging from 24% to 92% for human activities and from 8% to 76% for climate variability. In terms of surface run‐off, most of the time‐trend approaches produced smaller contributions of human activities (ranging from 21% to 49%) than climate change. The uncertainties associated with the various time‐trend approaches and the baseflow separation algorithm were revealed and discussed, along with some recommendations for future work.

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Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

Cited by 355 publications

References 107 publications

Opposite Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Annual Water Balance in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Opposite Effects of Climate and Land Use Changes on the Annual Water Balance in the Amazon Arc of Deforestation

Runoff Changes Based on Dual Factors in the Upstream Area of Yongding River Basin

Separating climate change and human contributions to variations in streamflow and its components using eight time‐trend methods

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