Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones: a review of where, when and why it occurs

Dacre, Helen; Pinto, Joaquim G.

doi:10.1038/s41612-020-00152-9

Cited by 57 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 103 publications

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“…A number of previous studies have analysed the statistical properties of the serial clustering of extreme events. Mailier et al (2006), Vitolo et al (2009) and Pinto et al (2013) studied European winter storms (see Dacre and Pinto, 2020, for a review); Villarini et al (2011) quantified clustering of ex-treme precipitation in the North American Midwest;and Villarini et al (2012) focused on extreme flooding in Austria. In these studies, clustering in time was assessed using the index of dispersion (variance-to-mean ratio) of a one-dimensional homogeneous Poisson process model, i.e.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods

Kopp

Rivoire

Ali

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Temporal (serial) clustering of extreme precipitation events on sub-seasonal timescales is a type of compound event. It can cause large precipitation accumulations and lead to floods. We present a novel, count-based procedure to identify episodes of sub-seasonal clustering of extreme precipitation. We introduce two metrics to characterise the prevalence of sub-seasonal clustering episodes and their contribution to large precipitation accumulations. The procedure does not require the investigated variable (here precipitation) to satisfy any specific statistical properties. Applying this procedure to daily precipitation from the ERA5 reanalysis data set, we identify regions where sub-seasonal clustering occurs frequently and contributes substantially to large precipitation accumulations. The regions are the east and northeast of the Asian continent (northeast of China, North and South Korea, Siberia and east of Mongolia), central Canada and south of California, Afghanistan, Pakistan, the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula, and the north of Argentina and south of Bolivia. Our method is robust with respect to the parameters used to define the extreme events (the percentile threshold and the run length) and the length of the sub-seasonal time window (here 2–4 weeks). This procedure could also be used to identify temporal clustering of other variables (e.g. heat waves) and can be applied on different timescales (sub-seasonal to decadal). The code is available at the listed GitHub repository.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Their study also indicated that reanalysis products are skilful in reproducing serial clustering identified in observations. Barton et al (2016) studied serial clustering of extreme precipitation events in southern Switzerland using Ripley's K function (Ripley, 1981) applied to a one-dimensional time axis (Dixon, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods

Kopp

Rivoire

Ali

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Extratropical cyclones are one of the most important characteristics of mid-latitude climate of the Northern Hemisphere, as their passage is often associated with extreme weather conditions such as heavy precipitation and intense winds [1][2][3]. They are among the most severe weather phenomena that affect the western European countries and a common phenomenon during the boreal winter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous climatic conditions or events such as persistent precipitation can produce soil saturation and increase the vulnerability of the system [24]. In many cases, when extreme weather events occur simultaneously or sequentially, they can overwhelm the ability of natural and human systems to cope, in turn creating social or environmental impacts [3]. The accumulated precipitation from several consecutive cyclones may cause rivers to overflow leading to flooding [25,26].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Consecutive Extratropical Cyclones Daniel, Elsa and Fabien, and Their Impact on the Hydrological Cycle of Mainland Portugal

Stojanović

Gonçalves

Sorí

et al. 2021

Water

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The extratropical cyclones that originate in the North Atlantic and propagate towards Europe are one of the major natural hazards in mid-latitudes. In December 2019, three consecutive extratropical cyclones named Daniel, Elsa, and Fabien affected Portugal. In this study, the synoptic and upper-level dynamic conditions associated with these systems during their impact in mainland Portugal are evaluated. The persistent intense zonal flow that crossed the entire Atlantic revealed by the integrated vapor transport and the vertically integrated moisture flux favored these hydro-meteorological systems. The patterns of mean sea level pressure, geopotential, potential vorticity, total column water, and convective available potential energy were used to characterize the influence of every system over mainland Portugal. A cluster analysis of monthly precipitation permitted the classification of the country into four main regions named the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East, and South region on which the analysis was focused. The three storms affected every region on consecutive days by the middle of December, producing extreme precipitation events and significant effects on the accumulated rainfall and runoff, particularly in the Northwest, Centre West, Northeast and Centre East regions. As consequence, multiple incidences of damage were reported along mainland Portugal. However, an assessment of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) on time scales of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months revealed a positive impact of rainfall increase on the attenuation of short and long term accumulated drought conditions, particularly in the center and north regions.

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“…On the one hand, this builds on previous research by extending the analysis of error growth to even larger scales, quantifying the impact of diabatic processes, and identifying methods for producing probabilistic forecasting when predictability is low. However, new expertise was also required, in topics including cyclone families [Dacre and Pinto (2020)], persistent weather regimes [Hauser et al (2020)], and new physical mechanisms such as interactions with the stratosphere [Kautz et al (2019)]. These new projects will also open new frontiers for collaboration with the seasonal and climate prediction communities, including valuable resources such as the new Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Project (S2S, WMO ( 2020)) and Subseasonal Experiment (SubX, NOAA (2020)) databases.…”

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confidence: 99%

Waves to Weather: Exploring the Limits of Predictability of Weather

Craig

Fink

Hoose

et al. 2021

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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Prediction of weather is a main goal of atmospheric science. Its importance to society is growing continuously due to factors such as vulnerability to natural disasters, the move to renewable energy sources, and the risks of climate change. But prediction is also a major scientific challenge due to the inherently limited predictability of a chaotic atmosphere, and has led to a revolution in forecasting methods as we have moved to probabilistic prediction. These changes provide the motivation for Waves to Weather (W2W), a major national research program in Germany with three main university partners in Munich, Mainz, and Karlsruhe. We are currently in the second 4-year phase of our planned duration of 12 years and employ 36 doctoral and post-doctoral scientists. In the context of this large program, we address what we have identified to be the most important and challenging scientific questions in predictability of weather, namely upscale error growth, errors associated with cloud processes, and probabilistic prediction of high impact weather. This paper presents some key results of the first phase of W2W and discusses how they have influenced our understanding of predictability. The key role of interdisciplinary research linking atmospheric scientists with experts in visualization, statistics, numerical analysis, and inverse methods will be highlighted. To ensure a lasting impact on research in our field in Germany and internationally, we have instituted innovative programs for training and support of early career scientists, and to support education, equal opportunities, and outreach, which are also described here.

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Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones: a review of where, when and why it occurs

Cited by 57 publications

References 103 publications

A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods

A novel method to identify sub-seasonal clustering episodes of extreme precipitation events and their contributions to large accumulation periods

Consecutive Extratropical Cyclones Daniel, Elsa and Fabien, and Their Impact on the Hydrological Cycle of Mainland Portugal

Waves to Weather: Exploring the Limits of Predictability of Weather

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