Serial Intervals of Respiratory Infectious Diseases: A Systematic Review and Analysis

Abstract

The serial interval of an infectious disease represents the duration between symptom onset of a primary case and symptom onset of its secondary cases. A good evidence base for such values is essential, because they allow investigators to identify epidemiologic links between cases and serve as an important parameter in epidemic transmission models used to design infection control strategies. We reviewed the literature for available data sets containing serial intervals and for reported values of serial intervals. We were able to collect data on outbreaks within households, which we reanalyzed to infer a mean serial interval using a common statistical method. We estimated the mean serial intervals for influenza A(H3N2) (2.2 days), pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (2.8 days), respiratory syncytial virus (7.5 days), measles (11.7 days), varicella (14.0 days), smallpox (17.7 days), mumps (18.0 days), rubella (18.3 days), and pertussis (22.8 days). For varicella, we found an evidence-based value that deviates substantially from the 21 days commonly used in transmission models. This value of the serial interval for pertussis is, to the best of our knowledge, the first that is based on observations. Our review reveals that, for most infectious diseases, there is very limited evidence to support the serial intervals that are often cited.

The most efficient critical vaccination coverage and its equivalence with maximizing the herd effect

“…The reproduction ratio without vaccination is equal to ρ(Bγ) = 2.1. The parameter values for both the generation interval and the reproduction ratio are in line with other studies in literature (Boëlle, Ansart, Cori, & Valleron, 2011;Vink, Bootsma, & Wallinga, 2014).…”

Clinical Performance of the Allplex^TM Respiratory Panel 1 Test Compared to Simplexa^TM Flu A/B and RSV for Detection of Influenza Virus and Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection Including Their Subtyping

“…Mean serial intervals of Flu A-H3, Flu A-H1pdm09, and RSV and the duration between the onset of symptoms in a primary case and in its secondary cases are significantly shorter than in other contagious diseases, such as measles, varicella, smallpox, mumps, rubella, and pertussis [15]. Rapid diagnosis of a respiratory viral infection could reduce the rate of antibiotics use and unnecessary tests [16]. …”

Pertussis: Microbiology, Disease, Treatment, and Prevention

“…Kretzschmar et al found that the R 0 for pertussis across five European countries (Finland, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, and the United Kingdom) during the 1990s was approximately 5.5, which is lower than R 0 estimates in previous studies (267). Moreover, in a recent systematic review, it was estimated that the mean interval from symptom onset in a primary pertussis case to symptom onset in a secondary case is 22.8 days (268). Similarly, the secondary attack rate is estimated to be at least 80% (171,269,270).…”