Set-level Strategic and Psychological Momentum in Best-of-three-set Professional Tennis Matches

Abstract

We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of strategic momentum and psychological momentum in best-of-three contests between players with unequal skills. As a theoretical benchmark, we develop a fully rational model of best-of-three contests and define psychological momentum as systematic deviation from the theoretical equilibrium. An empirical analysis of 66,262 professional tennis matches from 2002 to 2020 shows that our theoretical model closely matches first set outcomes, which is when set-level psychological momentum is absent. Overall, the empirical results show that both strategic momentum and psychological momentum contribute to the outcomes of best-of-three tennis contests.

Predicting Tennis Match Outcomes Mid-GameUsing Machine Learning on Psychological and Physical Data

“…The highest win is shown to be associated with a specific type of wide serve [9] , and rally length are showed significantly affect point outcomes [10]. Psychological momentum (PM) is considered to impact the game trend [11][12][13]. Depken et al found psychological momentum contributes to the outcomes of bestof-three tennis contests.…”

“…Thus, we conduct a detailed point-by-point dataset as data for our model. Categories of tennis betting are mainly pre-game and in-game [12]; previous tennis forecasting research is mainly focused on pre-match prediction, while around 80% of online betting proceeds when in the process of the game [12,13].…”

Visualizing the momentum of tennis matches based on prediction and evaluation models

“…TV coverage often emphasizes recent success rates, like winning nine out of ten points. Another method involves tracking consecutive wins in points or games, assigning a momentum score [3] . Weighting can be applied to critical moments for accuracy.…”