Severe Weather Warnings: impact of an event vs. impact of a warning.

Abstract

<p>The most important question a national weather service should ask itself in connection with its warning task is: "Do our warnings contribute to reducing the impact of extreme weather events?". A perfect impact forecast of an extreme weather event does not necessarily contribute to reduce the impact of the event. Even the most perfect warning, whether based on physical thresholds or on potential impact, is not a guarantee for a reduction of the impact of the warned extreme event. Only If the warning reaches the recipient in time, is understood and action is taken, is there a chance that the impact can be reduced, which means that the warning unfolds an impact. Therefore, if we want the recipient to understand the warnings and to know what action to take, we have to know what his needs are.</p><p>In this contribution we describe a method (“Jobs to be done”) with which we investigated the needs of the authorities in terms of severe weather warnings in Switzerland and we will present the results of this investigation. This method focuses our attention on those processes that are important to the authorities but unsatisfactorily fulfilled. Once isolated, we engage our experts in cooperation with the authorities to find optimal and innovative solutions through design thinking workshops. In the Swiss federal structure, the warning chain extends over all levels of the governance structure: the severe weather warnings are issued at federal level and transmitted to the Cantons, these can decide to add local information, particularly concerning impact, and transmit them to the communities and the population. In our investigation, we concentrated on the administrative authorities and on the cantonal coordination bodies of the fire brigades. The aim of this study is to find indications for optimising the warnings, in terms of content, representation and also distribution.</p><p>The investigation started in January 2021 with a series of interviews with seven natural hazard experts and six fire inspectors of different Cantons. Currently (April 2021) we are running two surveys in all Cantons and in June we plan two workshops with representatives of the Cantons and of the fire brigades together with collaborators of the National Weather Service MeteoSwiss (forecasters, developers and key accounts). </p>