Severity of winter seasons in the northern Baltic Sea between 1529 and 1990: reconstruction and analysis

Jevrejeva, Svetlana

doi:10.3354/cr017055

Cited by 53 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The main reason for this is the location of the Baltic Sea between the North Atlantic and Eurasian weather systems, which leads to large seasonal and inter-annual variation in the low-and the high-pressure systems. The close relationship between large-scale atmospheric circulation and Baltic Sea climate variability is well documented (Tinz 1996, Chen & Hellström 1999, Koslowski & Glaser 1999, Jevrejeva 2001, Omstedt & Chen 2001, Andersson 2002. Over time scales longer than 1 yr the Baltic Sea is almost in thermodynamic balance with the atmosphere (Omstedt & Rutgersson 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Baltic Sea climate: 200 yr of data on air temperature, sea level variation, ice cover, and atmospheric circulation

Omstedt¹,

Pettersen²,

Rodhe³

et al. 2004

Clim. Res.

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Relevant observed time series for the Baltic Sea region from the last 2 centuries were used to investigate climate variations and trends. These time series were: Stockholm air temperature and magnitude of seasonal temperature cycle, Stockholm sea level data, Baltic Sea maximum ice cover, and circulation types based on regional air pressure data. The definition of climate was analysed by considering how each parameter varies with the time scale. We found that 90% of the variance was for time scales shorter than 15 yr, the period then used as the climate-averaging time for all studied parameters. The results indicate positive trends for air temperature, sea level, and frequencies of anti-cyclonic circulation and westerly wind types over the last 200 yr. Negative trends were found for the magnitude of seasonal temperature cycle, sea-ice cover, and frequency of southwesterly wind. The major climate changes of the late 19th century were probably associated with the end of the 'Little Ice Age' and characterized by an unusual high frequency of cyclonic circulation. In the 20th century, pronounced positive trends were observed in sea level variation and anti-cyclonic circulation. In the most recent studied climate period (1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000), air temperature and sea level climate anomalies were positive and lay outside the range of last 200 yr normal variations. The study indicates that increased frequencies of anti-cyclonic circulation and westerly winds have resulted in a slightly warmer climate with reduced seasonal amplitude and reduced ice cover. Thereby, we support the hypothesis that the long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is at least partly related to changes in the atmospheric circulation.KEY WORDS: Baltic Sea · Climate · Atmospheric circulation · Temperature · Ice and sea levels Resale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisherClim Res 25: [205][206][207][208][209][210][211][212][213][214][215][216] 2004 current climate (Heino et al. 1999, Crowley 2000, IPCC 2001, and some authors claim that warming since 1975 is likely to be partly due to increased amounts of greenhouse gases (Karlén et al. 1999, IPCC 2001. Similar warming may also have happened during the Medieval Warm Period (Crowley & Lowery 1999). Recent research using tree-ring-based chronologies indicates that the variability of recent decades may lies within the natural range (Esper at al. 2002). This illustrates the difficulty of climate research. Also, probability views based on studies using general circulation models (GCMs) may be questionable, as they often only resolve atmospheric circulation coarsely and exclude realistic treatment of some forcing mechanisms (Räisänen & Alexandersson 2003).It is often difficult to attribute a given change to a particular mechanism, and equally difficult to distinguish between trends and oscillations. It is, for example, an oversimplification to explain observed hemisphere mean surf...

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Baltic Sea climate: 200 yr of data on air temperature, sea level variation, ice cover, and atmospheric circulation

Omstedt¹,

Pettersen²,

Rodhe³

et al. 2004

Clim. Res.

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“…There are also several excellent records of daily surface air temperature (SAT) time series from the region extending over a similar period of time. Considerable evidence suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns are significantly correlated with multi-year and decadal SAT (Chen and Hellsr6m, 1999;Moberg et al, 2000) and ice conditions in the Baltic region (Jevrejeva, 2001). In average and mild winters, warm air masses associated with westerly moving cyclones from the Atlantic dominate the Baltic climate.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Baltic Sea is partly covered by ice every year, and ice conditions have always been of great economic importance in the region, documented in many historical chronicles which have been calibrated by modem observations (Jevrejeva, 2001). There are also several excellent records of daily surface air temperature (SAT) time series from the region extending over a similar period of time.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Singular spectrum analysis of Baltic Sea ice conditions and large‐scale atmospheric patterns since 1708

Jevrejeva

Moore

2001

Geophysical Research Letters

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Abstract. We examine the relationship between ice conditions in the Baltic Sea and the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that create them. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is used to extract long-term trends and quasi-regular oscillations from time series of winter air temperature, date of ice break-up, maximum annual ice extent in the Baltic Sea (BMI) since 1708 and seasonal North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) indices. The AO exhibits power at periods of 2.3 and 13.9 years as well as at 7.8 years, and in general the NAO can be viewed as a subset of the AO as regards the Baltic region. Time series of ice break-up date also reflects variations in winter AO power in the 13.9-year power band, but not in the NAO 7.8-year band. The BMI seems to act as a non-linear filter on the fairly weak climate oscillations, increasing the signal-tonoise ratio of the oscillations significantly.

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“…Chuine et al, 2004;Meier et al, 2007) or the opening of northern harbours after winter ice (e.g. Tarand and Nordli, 2001;Jevrejeva, 2001;Leijonhufvud et al, 2008), have been used for temperature reconstructions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A standard paleoclimatological approach to temperature reconstruction in historical climatology: an example from the Czech Republic, A.D. 1718–2007

Dobrovolný¹,

Brázdil²,

Valášek³

et al. 2008

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This paper addresses a standard paleoclimatological approach to reconstructing temperatures in historical climatology. Weighted monthly temperature indices on a scale from −3 to +3, derived from documentary evidence for the period 1718-1850 in the Czech Lands, were used to create a series of seasonal (DJF, MAM, JJA, SON) and annual temperature indices as simple sums of indices from corresponding months. The period 1771-1850, when such indices overlap with instrumental measurements taken at Prague-Klementinum, was used to calibrate and verify relations between indices and the temperatures measured, using linear regression models (LRM) evaluated by various statistical characteristics. The most accurate LRM performance was obtained for DJF, MAM and annual temperatures, while JJA and SON temperature results proved slightly less reliable. Reconstructed data for 1718-1770 were combined with measured data to create series of seasonal and annual temperatures for the Prague-Klementinum station covering the period 1718-2007. Various problems in temperature reconstruction are further discussed: the completeness and quality of the index series, the expression of extreme temperatures, and the selection of a reference period for calibration. The suggested standard paleoclimatological approach lends more objectivity to both verification of reconstructed temperatures and the expression of uncertainties in reconstruction.

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Severity of winter seasons in the northern Baltic Sea between 1529 and 1990: reconstruction and analysis

Abstract: This paper presents the reconstructed severity of winter seasons in the northern Baltic Sea on the basis of historical time series of ice break-up at the port of Riga (1529Riga ( -1990

Cited by 53 publications

References 11 publications

Baltic Sea climate: 200 yr of data on air temperature, sea level variation, ice cover, and atmospheric circulation

Baltic Sea climate: 200 yr of data on air temperature, sea level variation, ice cover, and atmospheric circulation

Singular spectrum analysis of Baltic Sea ice conditions and large‐scale atmospheric patterns since 1708

A standard paleoclimatological approach to temperature reconstruction in historical climatology: an example from the Czech Republic, A.D. 1718–2007

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