Shadow Economy Estimation Using Cash Demand Approach: The Case of Serbia

Atanasijević, Jasna; Danon, Marko; Lužanin, Zorana; Kovačevic, D.

doi:10.3390/su142013179

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Söz konusu dönemde kayıt dışı ekonominin boyutu 2000 yılında %9,6, 2005 yılında %18,0, 2010 yılında %20,6, 2015 yılında %21,0 oranında takip edilen yıllarda ise 2017 yılında %20,2, 2018 yılında %20,2 ve 2019 yılında %20,4 oranında ölçüldüğü tespit edilmiştir. Atanasijevic (2022), parasal tabana dayalı tahmin yöntemi ile Sırbistan'da kayıt dışı ekonomin boyutunu (2005:Q1 -2020:Q4) çeyreklik veriler kullanarak incelemiştir. Söz konusu çalışmada Sırbistan'da kayıt dışı ekonominin boyutunun 2005 yılında %28,0 ila %29,0, 2014 yılında %23,0 ila %24,0 ve 2020 yılında %21,0 ila %20,0 arasında çeyreklik dönemlere göre değişkenlik gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir.…”

Section: Literatürunclassified

Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy in Turkey Using the Monetary (Fixed) Ratio and the Moving Averages Methods

Bilen¹,

ŞAHAN>²

2023

EPF Journal

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Devletin bilgisinde olmayan faaliyetler bütünü olarak tanımlanan kayıt dışı ekonominin boyutunun tahminine dair akademide çeşitli yaklaşımlar geliştirildiği görülmüştür. Kayıt dışı ekonomi sorununun çok boyutluluğu ve her ülkede farklı şekillerde kendini göstermesi sonucunda her bir yaklaşım kendi içerisinde çeşitli varsayımlara dayandırılmıştır. Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’nin 1985-2021 dönemine ait verileri üzerinden parasalcı yaklaşım olarak kabul edilen Parasal (Sabit) Oran Yöntemi kullanılarak, kayıt dışı ekonomi büyüklüğünü tahmin etmek amaçlanmıştır. Ayrıca Hareketli Ortalamalar Yöntemi uygulayarak ekonomik koşulların durağan kaldığı dönemlerde veri serileri arasında yaşanabilecek sert kırılmaların etkisi azaltılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucuna göre kayıt dışı ekonomi oranı % 17,14 ila % 20,84 arasında değişmektedir. Yapılan analiz sonucunda; kayıt dışı ekonominin GSYİH içerisindeki payının 1985-2008 dönemleri arasında şiddetli dalgalanmalar yaşadığı ve ABD’de finans sektöründe başlayan küresel ekonomik krizin de etkisiyle 2008 yılında Türkiye’nin son dönemlerin en büyük kayıt dışı ekonomi oranı ile karşı karşıya kaldığı görülmektedir. Çalışmaya göre 2009-2010 yıllarında küresel ekonomik krizin etkisinin devam ettiği, takip eden yıllarda ise azalarak kayıt dışı ekonomi oranının 2021 yılında %20,84’e kadar gerilediği anlaşılmıştır. Elde edilen bulguların kayıt dışı ekonomi faaliyetlerinin, ekonomik kriz döneminde artış eğilimine sahip olduğuna işaret ettiği değerlendirilmektedir.

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Section: Literatürunclassified

Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy in Turkey Using the Monetary (Fixed) Ratio and the Moving Averages Methods

Bilen¹,

ŞAHAN>²

2023

EPF Journal

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“…Despite being the liability of a private entity, money issued by banks can always be converted to cash at face value thanks to financial regulation and deposit insurance. This is why people consider it to be safe and useful as a means of payment [10], [11], [12], [13], [14]. The rise of digital platforms as a dominant business model of the information age is challenging the central role of banks in the payment system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Digital Currency on Demand for Money: Evidence from Indonesia

Hafid Saiful Fikr,

Riani,

Mustofa

et al. 2024

JEFMS

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The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of digital currency transaction variables on the demand for money in Indonesia. The data used are data on the volume of mobile banking transactions, internet banking, interest rates, the level of currency fluctuations, and inflation on the demand for money for the period 2013 to 2022. Data analysis uses Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration method. The results of regression testing can be concluded that the long-term relationship is valid. In addition, using CUSUM and CUSUMQ from the quadratic test, the demand for money in Indonesia is relatively stable using the narrow definition of money, it implies that there haven't been significant and persistent shifts in either the mean or the variance of the narrow money supply. A stable demand for money suggests that the economic agents in Indonesia, such as households and businesses, are not undergoing substantial changes in their preferences or behaviors related to holding money. This stability can have implications for monetary policy and economic planning, as it indicates a certain level of predictability in the demand for money. However, it's crucial to keep in mind that economic conditions and factors influencing the demand for money can change over time. Therefore, continuous monitoring and periodic reassessment of the stability of the demand for money are necessary for accurate economic analysis and policy formulation.

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Financial and legal institutions as an element of the mechanism for preventing shadow economic phenomena

Samoilova

2024

Национальная Безопасность / Nota Bene

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The article is aimed at determining the place of financial law institutions in the fight against such a threat to the economic security of the state, society, and the individual as the shadow economy. A significant number of publications by both domestic and foreign scientists are devoted to this phenomenon. Special attention is paid to reduction methods. However, for many scientific studies, an approach is typical, which boils down to listing, sometimes disclosing, specific ways and techniques of detenevization of the economy without taking into account its "natural" connection with such institutions of financial law as taxation, financial control, monetary regulation and others. It is obvious that, individually and collectively, these institutions can become an impulse for both the growth and suppression of shadow economic activity. In view of this, the purpose of the study is to substantiate the objective need to modify the institutions of financial law in order to reduce shadow economic phenomena. The set of research methods used by the author of the article is represented by two groups: general scientific and private scientific. The first of them includes: analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction. Based on them, the relationship between the categories "economic security", "shadow economy", "public and private finance" has been established. The second one includes absolute and relative statistical values, on the basis of which the processes taking place in the field of finance are characterized. The result of the study was to clarify the place of financial law institutions in the mechanism of countering shadow economic phenomena. Among them, a special place is given to the taxation system, which carries both the causes of shadowization and the potential to reduce the volume of "informal" economic activity by reducing the fiscal burden on business entities and individuals. The emphasis is also placed on monetary regulation tools used to track the financial flows of microactors, including those typical for the shadow environment. The above approach to the application of financial law institutions makes it possible to expand the tools for leveling shadow economic phenomena. In addition, the implementation of the formulated recommendations will have a positive impact on the state of the financial system of the state as a whole and its individual links in particular.

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Shadow Economy Estimation Using Cash Demand Approach: The Case of Serbia

Cited by 3 publications

References 36 publications

Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy in Turkey Using the Monetary (Fixed) Ratio and the Moving Averages Methods

Measuring the Size of the Shadow Economy in Turkey Using the Monetary (Fixed) Ratio and the Moving Averages Methods

The Impact of Digital Currency on Demand for Money: Evidence from Indonesia

Financial and legal institutions as an element of the mechanism for preventing shadow economic phenomena

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