We followed a population-based cohort of 5696 women, 32 -38 years of age, by registry linkage with cytology and pathology registries during a mean follow-up time of 4.1 years to assess the importance for CIN2 þ development of type-specific HPV DNA positivity at baseline. HPV 16, 31 and 33 conveyed the highest risks and were responsible for 33.1, 18.3 and 7.7% of CIN2 þ cases, respectively. Women infected with HPV 18, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59 and 66 had significantly lower risks of CIN2 þ than women infected with HPV 16. After adjustment for infection with other HPV types, HPV types 35, 45, 59 and 66 had no detectable association with CIN2 þ . In summary, the different HPV types found in cervical cancer show distinctly different CIN2 þ risks, with high risks being restricted to HPV 16 and its close relatives HPV 31 and HPV 33. Infection with 'high-risk' types of HPV is the major cause of cervical cancer, and the distribution of different HPV types in cancer tissue has been extensively analysed (Walboomers et al, 1999;Bosch et al, 2002;Munoz et al, 2003). Fifteen HPV types that infect the genital mucosa have been proposed as 'high-risk' HPV types as they have been found more often in cervical cancers than among healthy subjects . Data on the HPV type-specific risk of cervical neoplasia has hitherto mostly been based on cross-sectional case -control studies (Bosch et al, 1995;Clifford et al, 2003;Munoz et al, 2003). Case -control studies are sensitive to several biases, notably selection bias, differential sampling bias and other reverse causality biases. Absolute risks and population attributable proportions for each HPV type form the basis for decisions regarding which HPV types should be included in HPV screening tests as well as in vaccines and it is therefore important to estimate the type-specific risks using population-based prospective studies, a study design that minimises major sources of bias.Only two previous prospective studies have assessed the risk associated with several individual HPV types Berkhof et al, 2006), while several prospective studies have assessed certain clusters of HPV types (Koutsky et al, 1992;Liaw et al, 1999;Sherman et al, 2003;Szoke et al, 2003;Peto et al, 2004;Winer et al, 2005) or only investigated HPV types 16 and 18 (Khan et al, 2005).Therefore, we HPV-tested a population-based cohort of women and used a comprehensive registry-based follow-up to identify the risks for development of histopathologically verified high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2 þ ) associated with infections with 14 different so-called 'high-risk' HPV types.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Cohort definitionA population-based multicentre study was started in Sweden in May 1997 with the main purpose to evaluate the effect of HPV testing in primary cervical cancer screening. Women aged between 32 and 38 years (mean age: 35.1 years) in five regions in Sweden (Gothenburg, Malmö, Stockholm, Umeå and Uppsala) who took part in organised cervical screening were invited to take part in the study. Followi...