SHAP-Driven Explainable Artificial Intelligence Framework for Wildfire Susceptibility Mapping Using MODIS Active Fire Pixels: An In-Depth Interpretation of Contributing Factors in Izmir, Türkiye

Abstract

Wildfire susceptibility maps play a crucial role in preemptively identifying regions at risk of future fires and informing decisions related to wildfire management, thereby aiding in mitigating the risks and potential damage posed by wildfires. This study employs eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques, particularly SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to map wildfire susceptibility in Izmir Province, Türkiye. Incorporating fifteen conditioning factors spanning topography, climate, anthropogenic influences, and vegetation characteristics, machine learning (ML) models (Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM) were used to predict wildfire-prone areas using freely available active fire pixel data (MODIS Active Fire Collection 6 MCD14ML product). The evaluation of the trained ML models showed that the Random Forest (RF) model outperformed XGBoost and LightGBM, achieving the highest test accuracy (95.6%). All of the classifiers demonstrated a strong predictive performance, but RF excelled in sensitivity, specificity, precision, and F-1 score, making it the preferred model for generating a wildfire susceptibility map and conducting a SHAP analysis. Unlike prevailing approaches focusing solely on global feature importance, this study fills a critical gap by employing a SHAP summary and dependence plots to comprehensively assess each factor’s contribution, enhancing the explainability and reliability of the results. The analysis reveals clear associations between factors such as wind speed, temperature, NDVI, slope, and distance to villages with increased fire susceptibility, while rainfall and distance to streams exhibit nuanced effects. The spatial distribution of the wildfire susceptibility classes highlights critical areas, particularly in flat and coastal regions near settlements and agricultural lands, emphasizing the need for enhanced awareness and preventive measures. These insights inform targeted fire management strategies, highlighting the importance of tailored interventions like firebreaks and vegetation management. However, challenges remain, including ensuring the selected factors’ adequacy across diverse regions, addressing potential biases from resampling spatially varied data, and refining the model for broader applicability.