Shaping the role of 'fast' and 'slow' drivers of change in forest-shrubland socio-ecological systems

Abstract

The temporal speeds and spatial scales at which ecosystem processes operate are often at odds with the scale and speed at which natural resources such as soil, water and vegetation are managed those. Scale mismatches often occur as a result of the time-lag between policy development, implementation and observable changes in natural capital in particular. In this study, we analyse some of the transformations that can occur in complex forest-shrubland socio-ecological systems undergoing biophysical and socioeconomic change. We use a Multiway Factor Analysis (MFA) applied to a representative set of variables to assess changes in components of natural, economic and social capitals over time. Our results indicate similarities among variables and spatial units (i.e. municipalities) which allows us to rank the variables used to describe the SES according to their rapidity of change. The novelty of the proposed framework lies in the fact that the assessment of rapidity-to-change, based on the MFA, takes into account the multivariate relationships among the system's variables, identifying the net rate of change for the whole system, and the relative impact that individual variables exert on the system itself. The aim of this study was to assess the influence of fast and slow variables on the evolution of socio-economic systems based on simplified multivariate procedures applicable to vastly different socio-economic contexts and conditions. This study also contributes to quantitative analysis methods for long-established socio-ecological systems, which may help in designing more effective, and sustainable land management strategies in environmentally sensitive areas.

Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862–2009: A Brief Overview

“…The strength of such a linkage is increasingly dependent on rapidly-changing socioeconomic contexts typical of advanced economies [2,[43][44][45]. In these regards, the empirical findings of this study corroborate earlier evidence supporting the assumption that sequential demographic transformations are associated with a broad spectrum of socioeconomic processes driven by industrialization and urbanization [9,[35][36][37][38][39]45]. Involving multiple dimensions that are difficult to identify and indeed acting as synergistic drivers of change, the interplay between demographic transitions and socioeconomic development is particularly relevant in economically-advanced countries.…”

“…In this framework, the present study explores and clarifies the empirical linkages between population indicators along a complete demographic transition in Italy, defining homogeneous time periods and breakdowns according to the dominant socioeconomic context and possibly reflecting different 'modernization' stages. The results of this work provide an overview of the long transition toward modernization in Italy, focusing on the interplay between demographic patterns and processes [35][36][37][38][39]. At the same time, our study contributes to the analysis of DTs by adopting a wide set of yearly-based indicators that reflect different demographic patterns and processes over a sufficiently long-time span.…”

Soil erosion in East Africa: an interdisciplinary approach to realising pastoral land management change

“…Significant barriers to sustainable change are rooted in cultural identity content and lack of community cohesion and cooperation around shared resources (see [38]). Socio-economic processes operating at regional and higher spatial levels (population growth, urban expansion, and land tenure change) have constrained opportunities for change and locked Maasai communities in the study area into narrow decision-making pathways which have led to further exacerbation of environmental impacts, and further declining ecological resilience [64,65]. At the same time, opportunities for potential 'bounce back' were identified through openness to new knowledge and awareness of the inevitability of change demonstrated by the target communities.…”

Latent Drivers of Landscape Transformation in Eastern Europe: Past, Present and Future

“…Adaptation strategies should include practical opportunities to lower pressures on ecosystem services, contributing to long-term sustainability of local development [97][98][99]. Policies should focus on services bundled around the agricultural sector (e.g., food provision, land-use diversity and crop biodiversity) or those connected with forestry (timber production, atmospheric regulation, landscape experience and forest biodiversity [100][101][102]). Factors determining adaptive capacity to climate change include wealth, technology and infrastructure, information, knowledge and skills, institutions, flexibility, equity and social capital [103][104][105].…”