Sharp rises in large-scale, long-duration precipitation extremes with higher temperatures over Japan

Abstract

The intensity of extreme precipitation has been projected to increase with increasing air temperature according to the thermodynamic Clausius–Clapeyron (C-C) relation. Over the last decade, observational studies have succeeded in demonstrating the scaling relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature to understand the projected changes. In mid-latitude coastal regions, intense precipitation is strongly influenced by synoptic patterns and a particular characteristic is the long-lasting heavy precipitation driven by abundant moisture transport. However, the effect of synoptic patterns on the scaling relationship remains unclear. Here we conduct an event-based analysis using long-term historical records in Japan, to distinguish extreme precipitation arising from different synoptic patterns. We find that event peak intensity increases more sharply in persistent precipitation events, which lasted more than 10 h, sustained by atmospheric river-like circulation patterns. The long duration-accumulated precipitation extremes also increase with temperature at a rate considerably above the C-C rate at higher temperatures. Our result suggests that long-lasting precipitation events respond more to warming compared with short-duration events. This greatly increases the risks of future floods and landslides in the mid-latitude coastal regions.

Impact of SST on Present and Future Extreme Precipitation in Hokkaido Investigated Considering Weather Patterns

“…The magnitude of extreme precipitation for clusters C1 and C2 broadly follows the CC‐rate against SST. This is different from our earlier investigation using data from a rain gauge observation network (Hatsuzuka et al., 2021). It is speculated that this discrepancy arises from differences in the methods used for determining precipitation statistics.…”

“…It is speculated that this discrepancy arises from differences in the methods used for determining precipitation statistics. Hatsuzuka et al (2021) investigated the CC-scaling for peak hourly precipitation rate and accumulated precipitation amount using a database of precipitation events, whereas this study simply used daily precipitation. More importantly, the horizontal resolution of the d4PDF-RCM (20 km) might account for the differences between the findings of this study and those of investigations that used observational data.…”

“…Ohba et al (2015) showed that even during the Baiu season there are large variations in the synoptic circulation patterns that induce regional extreme precipitation. Using long-term dense observational data from Japan, Hatsuzuka et al (2021) demonstrated that the response of extreme precipitation to surface air temperature differs depending on the background synoptic conditions. Specifically, hourly precipitation extremes associated with AR-type storms respond more strongly to higher temperatures than those of localized afternoon thunderstorms, suggesting a potential increase in the risk of widespread floods and landslides.…”

Assessing the impact of the recent warming in the East China Sea on a torrential rain event in northern Kyushu (Japan) in early July 2017

“…The fractional change in the amount of precipitation produced in the experiments conducted in this study exceeds the CC scaling. Such super-CC scaling has been reported in recent studies (Lenderink et al, 2017;Hatsuzuka et al, 2021), but it remains debatable (e.g., Fildier et al, 2017). Recent studies indicate that the increase in the near-surface moistening causes the substantial increase in the amount of the precipitation of the mid-latitude torrential rains, consistent with the present study (Lenderink et al, 2017;Schumacher and Peters, 2017).…”

Spatial-temporal variations of extreme precipitation indices and their linkage with atmospheric circulation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

“…The researches on extreme precipitation events have drawn worldwide attention. In recent decades, there has been a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events in the United States (Gizaw et al, 2021), Japan (Hatsuzuka et al, 2021), Australia (Liu et al, 2020), India (Saha and Sateesh, 2022) and other regions. Several studies show that extreme precipitation in China is generally consistent with the global trend, but has obvious regional and local characteristics .…”