Search citation statements
Paper Sections
Citation Types
Year Published
Publication Types
Relationship
Authors
Journals
El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, amplify climate variability throughout the world 1 . Uncertain climate model predictions limit our ability to assess whether these climatic events could become more extreme under anthropogenic greenhouse warming 2 . Palaeoclimate records provide estimates of past changes, but it is unclear if they can constrain mechanisms underlying future predictions 3 – 5 . Here we uncover a mechanism using numerical simulations that drives consistent changes in response to past and future forcings, allowing model validation against palaeoclimate data. The simulated mechanism is consistent with the dynamics of observed extreme El Niño events, which develop when western Pacific warm pool waters expand rapidly eastwards because of strongly coupled ocean currents and winds 6 , 7 . These coupled interactions weaken under glacial conditions because of a deeper mixed layer driven by a stronger Walker circulation. The resulting decrease in ENSO variability and extreme El Niño occurrence is supported by a series of tropical Pacific palaeoceanographic records showing reduced glacial temperature variability within key ENSO-sensitive oceanic regions, including new data from the central equatorial Pacific. The model–data agreement on past variability, together with the consistent mechanism across climatic states, supports the prediction of a shallower mixed layer and weaker Walker circulation driving more frequent extreme El Niño genesis under greenhouse warming.
El Niño events, the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, amplify climate variability throughout the world 1 . Uncertain climate model predictions limit our ability to assess whether these climatic events could become more extreme under anthropogenic greenhouse warming 2 . Palaeoclimate records provide estimates of past changes, but it is unclear if they can constrain mechanisms underlying future predictions 3 – 5 . Here we uncover a mechanism using numerical simulations that drives consistent changes in response to past and future forcings, allowing model validation against palaeoclimate data. The simulated mechanism is consistent with the dynamics of observed extreme El Niño events, which develop when western Pacific warm pool waters expand rapidly eastwards because of strongly coupled ocean currents and winds 6 , 7 . These coupled interactions weaken under glacial conditions because of a deeper mixed layer driven by a stronger Walker circulation. The resulting decrease in ENSO variability and extreme El Niño occurrence is supported by a series of tropical Pacific palaeoceanographic records showing reduced glacial temperature variability within key ENSO-sensitive oceanic regions, including new data from the central equatorial Pacific. The model–data agreement on past variability, together with the consistent mechanism across climatic states, supports the prediction of a shallower mixed layer and weaker Walker circulation driving more frequent extreme El Niño genesis under greenhouse warming.
Geochemical proxies are frequently utilized in the reconstruction of past ocean temperatures. Due to resource constraints, these reconstructions typically rely on a single sediment core, raising questions about the local and regional representativeness of paleotemperature records. To address this, we analyzed four sediment cores located within a 10-km radius in the northern Okinawa Trough (OT), which share the same climatic forcing and thus should reflect similar climate variations. We compiled published data and generated new paleotemperature estimates based on three widely used geochemical proxies (foraminiferal Mg/Ca, $${\text{U}}_{37}^{{{\text{K}}^{\prime}}}$$ U 37 K ′ , $${\text{TEX}}_{86}$$ TEX 86 ). Analysis of the mean absolute deviations for nearby records based on the same proxy revealed that $${\text{U}}_{37}^{{{\text{K}}^{\prime}}}$$ U 37 K ′ has the highest reproducibility, followed by Mg/Ca and $${\text{TEX}}_{86}$$ TEX 86 . However, inconsistencies in inter-proxy offsets among nearby sites suggest the presence of noise in the proxy records, likely stemming from instrumental errors and sediment heterogeneity. Furthermore, the Mg/Ca and $${\text{U}}_{37}^{{{\text{K}}^{\prime}}}$$ U 37 K ′ paleotemperature records agree within uncertainty when accounting for inter-site variability and calibration uncertainties, challenging previous interpretations of temperature signals from different seasons. All proxies indicate similar glacial-interglacial trends, albeit with varying magnitudes of temperature change. Both Mg/Ca and $${\text{U}}_{37}^{{{\text{K}}^{\prime}}}$$ U 37 K ′ records suggest a glacial cooling of ~ 3 °C, whereas $${\text{TEX}}_{86}$$ TEX 86 sea surface temperature (SST) data indicate a stronger glacial cooling of approximately ~ 6–8 °C. Modern observations indicate a subsurface $${\text{TEX}}_{86}$$ TEX 86 recording depth of 50–100 m, coinciding with the thermocline. However, the $${\text{TEX}}_{86}$$ TEX 86 subsurface temperature (subT) record does not resemble the Mg/Ca records of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera species. Instead, there is a better agreement with benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca records of Uvigerina spp. (~ 700 m) and the intermediate temperature record derived from radiolarian assemblages (~ 500 m), pointing to a $${\text{TEX}}_{86}$$ TEX 86 recording depth that is deeper than the thermocline. In summary, our findings show that proxy noise can impact inter-proxy comparisons of paleotemperature records, but not the direction of glacial-interglacial shifts. Future research should prioritize constraining the recording depth of paleotemperature proxies and reducing calibration uncertainty for more precise and reliable quantitative paleotemperature reconstruction.
The trace element (TE) and isotopic composition of calcareous foraminifera has been invaluable in advancing our understanding of environmental change throughout the geological record. Whereas “bulk” geochemical techniques, typically requiring the dissolution of tens to hundreds of foraminiferal tests for a single analysis, have been used for decades to reconstruct past ocean-climate conditions, recent technological advances have increased our ability to investigate foraminiferal geochemistry from an individual test to a micron-scale domain level. Here we review current and emerging techniques and approaches to studying the trace element and stable isotope geochemistry of individual foraminifera (i.e., individual foraminiferal analyses or “IFA”), covering spatial scales including whole-test analysis, intratest spot analysis, and cross-sectional chemical mapping techniques. Our discussion of each technique provides an overview of how the specific analytical tool works, the history of its usage in foraminiferal studies, its applications, considerations, and limitations, and potential directions for future study. Lastly, we describe potential applications of combining multiple IFA techniques to resolve key questions related to paleoceanography, (paleo)ecology, and biomineralization, and provide recommendations for the storage, dissemination, and transparency of the vast amounts of data produced through these methods. This review serves as a resource for budding and experienced foraminiferal geochemists to explore the wide array of cutting-edge approaches being used to study the geochemical composition of modern and fossil foraminifera.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2025 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.