Shifting attitudes towards identity, borders and geopolitical choices: The case of Moldova

Abstract

The ongoing war at the immediate borders of the European Union (EU) poses the greatest security risk Europe has known since the end of the Second World War. Although the entire continent is on high alert, the proximity to the conflict is definitely an important factor to consider when assessing security risks. In this regard, not only is Moldova at Ukraine’s border, but its recent history (especially the frozen conflict in Transnistria) and the complicated relations with Russia, add to enhancing people’s fears and uncertainty. Moreover, the closed cultural, historical and ethnic ties that Moldova shares with Romania – a NATO and EU member – often fuel Russia’s threat perceptions to its Transistrian proxy. Within this context, this paper aims to assess the attitudes that Moldovans – a population that is traditionally divided between West and East, between EU (respectively Romania) and Russia – display towards their own identity and the path that their country should embrace in this difficult geopolitical design through mixed methods research. The main findings indicate a clear shift in Moldovans’ attitudes towards a stronger alignment with European integration that is also reflected in the preference regarding their country’s future geopolitical path.

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“…In the same Special Issue of Regional Science Policy and Practice on "Ukraine: Geopolitical Realities and Regional Development Perspectives", Simionov (2023) uses an Generalized Q analysis in order to handle 50 online questionnaires in the Republic of Moldova (including people living in close proximity with Romania/at the borders or that have close links to Romania) which reach 2048 = 2^11 composed statements, where 6 sentences outlined on identity (European, East European, Romanian, Moldavian, Transnistrian and other) and 5 sentences on Moldova's geopolitical prospects ('Moldova stays as it is', 'Moldova becomes part of Romania', 'Moldova becomes part of Russia's EEU', 'Moldova integrates into the EU', 'Moldova expands to the Black Sea'). The questionnaire also included a socio-demographic data collection of the respondents' specific features (age, gender, education, language, occupation, and city).…”

“…6 hazards + 8 assets + 6 responses + 6 expectations = 22 simple statements, on climate hazards, it was possible to get 6 x 8 x 6 x 6 = 1728 combined responses enabling the Q method exercise to be pursued for the sample of 500 questionnaires which allowed to find two characteristic prominent attitudes in Timor Leste regarding natural hazards. The Generalized Q method was also used in other recent studies (Dentinho, 2023;Simionov, 2023).…”