Shifting avian spatial regimes in a changing climate

Roberts, Caleb P.; Allen, Craig R.; Angeler, David G.

doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0517-6

Cited by 41 publications

(40 citation statements)

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“…This allowed us to assess the effects of environmental pressures that are relevant at scales broader than an individual lake, and that may lead to cumulative or emergent properties at that scale, while accounting for relevant units of landscape structure which are required for an objective assessment of regional stability (Allen et al, 2016;McCluney et al, 2014;Sundstrom et al, 2017). For instance, ecoregions are spatial, often dynamic regions that are relatively homogeneous in terms of their ecological systems, organisms, environment, and anthropogenic effects (Roberts, Allen, Angeler, & Twidwell, 2019;Sandin & Johnson, 2000;Sundstrom et al, 2017). Indeed, aquatic ecosystems in different ecoregions (defined by more terrestrial features such as vegetation cover and land use) also often differ in their water quality and biota (Hughes & Larsen, 2002).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of long‐term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes

Fried‐Petersen

Araya‐Ajoy

Futter

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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Research on ecosystem stability has had a strong focus on local systems. However, environmental change often occurs slowly at broad spatial scales, which requires regional‐level assessments of long‐term stability. In this study, we assess the stability of macroinvertebrate communities across 105 lakes in the Swedish “lakescape.” Using a hierarchical mixed‐model approach, we first evaluate the environmental pressures affecting invertebrate communities in two ecoregions (north, south) using a 23 year time series (1995–2017) and then examine how a set of environmental and physical variables affect the stability of these communities. Results show that lake latitude, size, total phosphorus and alkalinity affect community composition in northern and southern lakes. We find that lake stability is affected by species richness and lake size in both ecoregions and alkalinity and total phosphorus in northern lakes. There is large heterogeneity in the patterns of community stability of individual lakes, but relationships between that stability and environmental drivers begin to emerge when the lakescape, composed of many discrete lakes, is the focal unit of study. The results of this study highlight that broad‐scale comparisons in combination with long time series are essential to understand the effects of environmental change on the stability of lake communities in space and time.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drivers of long‐term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes

Fried‐Petersen

Araya‐Ajoy

Futter

et al. 2020

Global Change Biology

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“…unresponsive metric if systems reorganize around similar numbers of scale domains during and post-collapse, meaning this metric may only detect extreme collapse events (Angeler et al, 2019b;Roberts et al, 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The first resilience-collapse relationship prediction is that changes in cross-scale resilience metrics will predict community collapse: we test this by determining if changes in cross-scale resilience metrics synchronize with abrupt shifts in community composition. Within-scale redundancy, cross-scale redundancy, and number of scale domains are expected to most strongly predict community collapse (Nash et al, 2016;Roberts et al, 2019;Spanbauer et al, 2016). Finally, the second resilience-collapse prediction is cross-scale resilience metrics will only weakly predict maintenance of specific species assemblages: we test this by determining how cross-scale resilience metrics relate to changes in community similarity over time (Gunderson, 2000;Angeler et al, 2019b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

How do ecological resilience metrics relate to community stability and collapse?

Roberts

Angeler

Allen

2019

Ecological Indicators

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The concept of ecological resilience (the amount of disturbance a system can absorb before collapsing and reorganizing) holds potential for predicting community change and collapse-increasingly common issues in the Anthropocene. Yet neither the predictions nor metrics of resilience have received rigorous testing. The crossscale resilience model, a leading operationalization of resilience, proposes resilience can be quantified by the combination of diversity and redundancy of functions performed by species operating at different scales. Here, we use 48 years of sub-continental avian community data aggregated at multiple spatial scales to calculate resilience metrics derived from the cross-scale resilience model (i.e., cross-scale diversity, cross-scale redundancy, within-scale redundancy, and number of body mass aggregations) and test core predictions inherent to community persistence and change. Specifically, we ask how cross-scale resilience metrics relate community stability and collapse. We found low mean cross-correlation between species richness and cross-scale resilience metrics. Resilience metrics constrained the magnitude of community fluctuations over time (mean species turnover), but resilience metrics but did not influence variability of community fluctuations (variance in turnover). We show shifts in resilience metrics closely predict community collapse: shifts in cross-scale redundancy preceded abrupt changes in community composition, and shifts in cross-scale diversity synchronized with abrupt changes in community composition. However, we found resilience metrics only weakly relate to maintenance of particular species assemblages over time. Our results distinguish ecological resilience from ecological stability and allied concepts such as elasticity and resistance: we show communities may fluctuate widely yet still be resilient. Our findings also differentiate the roles of functional redundancy and diversity as metrics of resilience and reemphasize the importance of considering resilience metrics from a multivariate perspective. Finally, we support the contention that ecological stability is nested within ecological resilience: stability predicts the behavior of systems within an ecological regime, and resilience predicts the maintenance of regimes and behavior of systems collapsing into alternative regimes.

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“…In this paper, we study the relevance of rare species in the context of spatial 92 regime shifts associated with recently demonstrated shifting biome frontiers in the 93 Great Plains of America caused by global change (Roberts et al 2019). Because 94 ecological systems undergo profound reorganization with persistent changes in 95 structure, functions and feedbacks (Angeler and Allen 2016), we were especially 96 interested in assessing whether rare species of one spatial regime might become 97 dominant once a system has shifted to a new spatial regime, as is the case when 98 grasslands become encroached by woodlands.…”

Section: Introduction 30mentioning

confidence: 99%

Low contribution of rare species to resilience and adaptive capacity in novel spatial regimes arising from biome shifts caused by global change

Angeler

Roberts

Allen

2020

Preprint

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1Human activity causes biome shifts that alter biodiversity and spatial resilience 2 patterns, ultimately challenging conservation. Rare species, often considered 3 vulnerable to change and endangered, can be a critical element of resilience by 4 providing adaptive capacity in response to disturbances. However, little is known 5 about changes in rarity and dominance patterns of communities once a biome 6 transitions into a novel spatial regime, and how this affects conservation. We used 7 time series modeling to identify species rarity and dominance patterns in an 8 expanding terrestrial (southern) spatial regime in the North American Great Plains 9 and another (northern) regime that will become encroached by the southern regime in 10 the near future. In this approach, presumably rare and abundant species show 11 stochastic and deterministic dynamics, respectively. We specifically assessed how 12 stochastic species of the northern spatial regime influence the resilience and adaptive 13 capacity of a novel spatial regime once it has been encroached by the southern regime 14 by either becoming deterministic or staying stochastic. Using 47 years (1968 -2014) 15 of breeding bird survey data and a space-for-time substitution, we found half of the 16 stochastic species from the northern regime to be either deterministic or stochastic in 17 the southern regime. However, the overall contribution of these species to the 18 community of the southern regime was low, manifested in marginal contributions to 19 resilience and adaptive capacity of this regime. Also, none of these species were of 20 conservation concern, suggesting limited need for revised species conservation action 21 in the novel spatial regime. From a systemic perspective our result suggest that while 22 stochastic species can potentially compensate for the loss of dominant species after 23 disturbances and maintain the system in its current regime, they may only marginally 24 3 contribute to resilience and adaptive capacity in a new spatial regime after 25 fundamental ecological changes have occurred. 26 27

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Shifting avian spatial regimes in a changing climate

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Cited by 41 publications

References 58 publications

Drivers of long‐term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes

Drivers of long‐term invertebrate community stability in changing Swedish lakes

How do ecological resilience metrics relate to community stability and collapse?

Low contribution of rare species to resilience and adaptive capacity in novel spatial regimes arising from biome shifts caused by global change

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