Shifting patterns in Pacific climate, West Coast salmon survival rates, and increased volatility in ecosystem services

Mantua, Nathan J.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1513511112

Cited by 19 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Extreme events are, by definition, rare but are also predicted to increase rapidly in the future if gradual trends in average conditions are accompanied by greater climatic variability (Jentsch et al 2007). That dynamic could unfold for northwestern rivers if the long-term warming trends we document begin to interact with climatically enhanced variability in the North Pacific Ocean (Mantua 2015;Di Lorenzo and Mantua 2016). In some late-century scenarios for the Snake and Columbia rivers, for example, it has been predicted that the number of weeks with average temperatures exceeding 21°C could increase 10-fold relative to historical baselines (Mantua et al 2010).…”

Section: Biological Effectsmentioning

confidence: 84%

“…; Feist et al. ), and less‐favorable ocean conditions (Mantua ; Di Lorenzo and Mantua ) to negatively affect coldwater fishes. For some populations or fisheries that are heavily exposed and vulnerable, an additional 1–3°C of warming accompanied by those changes may well prove to be the road to ruin.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although warming of the region's rivers is evident and temperatures during some months are now about 1°C warmer than 20-40 years ago, it is encouraging to note that salmon and trout populations remain widespread in the Northwest. Less encouraging is that the Earth is probably in the initial decades of a long-term warming period, and temperature increases will act synergistically with regional trends in hydrology (Luce and Holden 2009;Kormos et al 2016), nonnative species invasions (Sanderson et al 2009), human population growth and water use (Vörösmarty et al 2010;Feist et al 2017), and less-favorable ocean conditions (Mantua 2015;Di Lorenzo and Mantua 2016) to negatively affect coldwater fishes. For some populations or fisheries that are heavily exposed and vulnerable, an additional 1-3°C of warming accompanied 582 by those changes may well prove to be the road to ruin.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

et al. 2018

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Large rivers constitute small portions of drainage networks but provide important migratory habitats and fisheries for salmon and trout when and where temperatures are sufficiently cold. Management and conservation of coldwater fishes in the current era of rapid climate change require knowing how riverine thermal environments are evolving and the potential for detrimental biological impacts. Robust estimates of warming rates, however, are lacking due to limited long‐term temperature monitoring, so we compiled the best available multidecadal records and estimated trends at 391 sites in the 56,500‐km river network of the northwestern USA. Warming trends were prevalent during summer and early fall months in recent 20‐ and 40‐year periods (0.18–0.35°C per decade during 1996–2015 and 0.14–0.27°C per decade during 1976–2015), paralleled air temperature trends, and were mediated by discharge trends at regional and local levels. To illustrate the biological consequences of warming later in this century, trend estimates were used to inform selection of river temperature scenarios and assess changes in thermal exposure of adult Sockeye Salmon Oncorhynchus nerka migrating to four population areas as well as thermal habitat shifts for resident Brown Trout Salmo trutta and Rainbow Trout O. mykiss populations throughout the region. Future warming of 1–3°C would increase Sockeye Salmon exposure by 5–16% (3–143 degree‐days) and reduce thermally suitable riverine trout habitats by 8–31% while causing their upstream shift. Effects of those changes on population persistence and fisheries are likely to be context dependent, and strategic habitat restoration or adaptation strategies could ameliorate some biological impairments, but effectiveness will be tempered by the size of rivers, high costs, and pervasiveness of thermal effects. Most salmon and trout rivers will continue to provide suitable habitats for the foreseeable future, but it also appears inevitable that some river reaches will gradually become too warm to provide traditional habitats.

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Section: Biological Effectsmentioning

confidence: 84%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

et al. 2018

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“…T he Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are recurring patterns of climate variability centered over the northeastern (NE) and equatorial Pacific, respectively, that fluctuate at scales of years (ENSO) to decades (PDO) (1,2). Distinct, yet also related, these patterns can amplify or dampen each other through atmospheric teleconnection (1,3).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the NE Pacific, they induce similar spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies during positive (warm) and negative (cool) phases (4). Low-frequency physical variability attributed to the PDO and ENSO modulates large shifts in NE Pacific water temperature, ocean currents, and foodweb dynamics that can persist for months to years (2,5,6). Shifts in NE Pacific plankton communities occur as well (7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12); however, climate impacts on phytoplankton ecology in this region are relatively underexplored, largely due to a lack of phytoplankton data at sufficient scales.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climatic regulation of the neurotoxin domoic acid

McKibben

Peterson

Wood

et al. 2017

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

134

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Domoic acid is a potent neurotoxin produced by certain marine microalgae that can accumulate in the foodweb, posing a health threat to human seafood consumers and wildlife in coastal regions worldwide. Evidence of climatic regulation of domoic acid in shellfish over the past 20 y in the Northern California Current regime is shown. The timing of elevated domoic acid is strongly related to warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Oceanic Niño Index, an indicator of El Niño events. Ocean conditions in the northeast Pacific that are associated with warm phases of these indices, including changes in prevailing currents and advection of anomalously warm water masses onto the continental shelf, are hypothesized to contribute to increases in this toxin. We present an applied domoic acid risk assessment model for the US West Coast based on combined climatic and local variables. Evidence of regional-to basin-scale controls on domoic acid has not previously been presented. Our findings have implications in coastal zones worldwide that are affected by this toxin and are particularly relevant given the increased frequency of anomalously warm ocean conditions.T he Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are recurring patterns of climate variability centered over the northeastern (NE) and equatorial Pacific, respectively, that fluctuate at scales of years (ENSO) to decades (PDO) (1, 2). Distinct, yet also related, these patterns can amplify or dampen each other through atmospheric teleconnection (1, 3). In the NE Pacific, they induce similar spatial patterns of sea surface temperature anomalies during positive (warm) and negative (cool) phases (4). Low-frequency physical variability attributed to the PDO and ENSO modulates large shifts in NE Pacific water temperature, ocean currents, and foodweb dynamics that can persist for months to years (2,5,6). Shifts in NE Pacific plankton communities occur as well (7-12); however, climate impacts on phytoplankton ecology in this region are relatively underexplored, largely due to a lack of phytoplankton data at sufficient scales.Decadal, regional-scale monitoring of domoic acid (DA) in shellfish can be used to investigate climate-scale impacts on phytoplankton ecology. The neurotoxin DA is produced by some species of the diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia. It enters secondary trophic levels when suspension feeders such as shellfish and anchovies ingest toxic Pseudo-nitzschia cells. Consumption of these organisms by humans can lead to a serious neurological disorder named Domoic Acid Poisoning (DAP), also termed Amnesic Shellfish Poisoning. DAP symptoms range from gastrointestinal disturbance to seizures, memory loss, or, rarely, death (13,14).DA was first identified as a public health threat in 1987 (15). Toxin-producing Pseudo-nitzschia spp. and DA have since been identified worldwide with the greatest prevalence in, and most deleterious impacts on, productive eastern boundary upwelling systems (16). Laboratory experiments have found multiple ...

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Swimming depths and water temperatures encountered by radio‐archival‐tagged Chinook Salmon during their spawning migration in the Yukon River basin

2022

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Objective Historically, Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha have supported important fisheries throughout the Yukon River basin, but dramatic declines in abundance since the late 1990s have resulted in smaller returns, severe reductions in harvests, and difficulties in meeting escapement goals. These observations coincide with major climatic changes in the northern Pacific, characterized by a general warming trend throughout the region. Our objective was to document the migratory patterns of the fish in relation to the environmental conditions encountered in order to assess the impact of climate change and help manage the returns. Methods We used radio‐archival tags to track the distribution and movements of adult Chinook Salmon returning to the Yukon River to spawn. The tags were equipped with sensors that recorded the swimming depth of the fish and water temperatures encountered during the upriver migration. Spawning ground surveys and fishery returns were used to recover the tags to download the sensor data. Result Ninety‐five (71.4%) of the 133 tags tracked upriver were recovered, including 35 (26.3%) returned by fishermen and 60 (45.1%) retrieved on the spawning grounds. Upriver movements were characterized by continuous and highly variable fluctuations in depth throughout the migration, ranging from <5 m to >20 m in the lower river and progressively less as fish moved upstream into shallower waters. Swimming depth was not influenced by time of day. Temperatures encountered by the fish were generally warmer in 2004, but this pattern was not consistent throughout the basin and was driven by conditions in the lower main stem, with temperatures frequently >18°C and periodically exceeding 21°C. There was no obvious behavioral response to the warm conditions, with comparable movements and survival rates when conditions were cooler. Temperatures in terminal tributaries often exceeded the upper range generally considered optimal during spawning (13°C), but signs of impaired behavior or prespawning mortality were not observed. A thermal diel pattern was evident as fish left the main stem and approached their spawning grounds, with temperatures declining from early evening to early morning and increasing during daylight hours, suggesting that assessments based on average daily temperature may not adequately reflect exposure to suboptimal conditions. Conclusion Although the fish during our study frequently encountered temperatures associated with adverse effect on salmon, impaired behavior and increased mortality were not evident. However, the current warming trend occurring throughout the northern Pacific is predicted to continue and may impact salmon populations more severely. Our findings provide a baseline for comparing past conditions and migratory patterns with those of present and future returns. Radio‐archival tags not only provided site‐specific information, but substantially increased the number of tags recovered, with a recovery rate considerably higher than reported for most archival tag studi...

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Shifting patterns in Pacific climate, West Coast salmon survival rates, and increased volatility in ecosystem services

Cited by 19 publications

References 19 publications

Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

Global Warming of Salmon and Trout Rivers in the Northwestern U.S.: Road to Ruin or Path Through Purgatory?

Climatic regulation of the neurotoxin domoic acid

Swimming depths and water temperatures encountered by radio‐archival‐tagged Chinook Salmon during their spawning migration in the Yukon River basin

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