Shifting Sands: Sea Level Rise, Maritime Boundaries and Inter-State Conflict

Abstract

While the international security dimensions of climate change have received an increasing amount of attention, one impact that has not been widely discussed is the role that sea level rise could play in rendering maritime boundaries around the globe uncertain. The argument of this article is that this confusion of maritime boundaries could have potentially significant consequences in creating inter-state disputes, possibly leading to conflicts and international instability. This article will outline how sea level rise will confuse maritime boundaries and how these maritime boundary shifts could lead to inter-state disputes and conflict.In recent times, the international security dimensions of climate change have received an increasing amount of attention (see, for instance, Campbell et al., 2007;Dupont, 2008;Schwartz and Randall, 2003). But one impact that has not been widely discussed is the role that sea level rise could play in rendering maritime boundaries around the globe uncertain. The argument of this article is that this confusion of maritime boundaries could have potentially significant consequences in creating inter-state disputes, possibly leading to conflicts and international instability. The article proceeds in two sections. Firstly, it will outline how sea level rise will confuse maritime boundaries. Secondly, it will demonstrate how maritime boundary shifts could lead to inter-state disputes and conflict.

Atoll Island States and International Law

“…138 This could take the form of either a UN General Assembly resolution on stable maritime zones 136 The Spratly Archipelago are claimed in their entirety or partially by Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei, see Lusthaus (2010). 138 This could take the form of either a UN General Assembly resolution on stable maritime zones 136 The Spratly Archipelago are claimed in their entirety or partially by Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, the Philippines and Brunei, see Lusthaus (2010).…”

Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Maritime Baselines: Responding to the Plight of Low-Lying Atoll States

“…By and large, however, this work has not considered what rights, if any, displaced persons and communities should have to their maritime zones after their territories become uninhabitable (though see Ödalen 2014). Some political scientists have considered the impact of sea level rise on maritime zones, but their primary focus has been on potential disputes over the issue and whether these are likely to increase interstate conflict (e.g., Lusthaus 2010).…”

Rising Sea Level, Receding Boundaries and Freezing Baselines in a Warming Climate

“…The risk of "eternal litigation" increases with ambulatory baselines, and with this, the aforementioned global stability that is so desired is threatened. In addition to these claims of extensive costs, it can be argued that the "wasteful spending" [19] undertaken by Japan in protecting Okino-tori Shima justifies having the boundaries frozen. Perhaps not specifically for this particularly tentative claim, but for other lowtide elevations and drying reefs that risk being submerged in the coming decades, the freezing of boundaries could prove to be a more affordable choice than attempting to ensure that their low-lying objects can support the economic activity required for it to maintain its status under UNCLOS [25].…”

“…This notion has to be weighed up against the aforementioned idea of global stability. But it appears that this approach would resolve many issues that have plagued the international community, and more consistent proposed regime [19]. The most obvious benefit to be had in freezing baselines would be the consistency and certainty it would entail.…”

“…Sea level rise presents a significant threat to international security which needs to be given appropriate attention and concern. As existing boundaries are rendered uncertain, inter-state disputes and conflict will likely evolve [19]. This paper discusses the less publicised but far from less significant, an issue of how the international community's approach to maritime boundary delimitation will be impacted by climate change resulting in sea level rise with coastal lands submerging affecting the international boundaries and impacting on biodiversity and human survival in the future.…”