Shifting targets: the effect of peacekeeping on postwar violence

Abstract

Existing research shows that peace after civil wars is more stable with peacekeepers present. Yet, violence persists in many postwar contexts, and although postwar violence is often strategic and closely linked to the faultlines of the preceding war, we know little about the impact of peacekeepers on such violence. What we know, moreover, focuses on the former combatants, while this study shows that the majority of deaths in postwar violence are inflicted by other armed actors. This is a challenge for peacekeepers who – for mandate or capacity reasons – usually focus on the warring parties. I argue that the impact of peacekeepers on postwar violence hinges on the extent to which they fill a public security gap after war, since responsibility for violence not covered by a mission’s mandate lies with the often dysfunctional security agencies of the state. To test this I use a novel spatial approach to generate data that captures the manifold manifestations of violence across different postwar contexts. I find that only UN police – with their broader effect on public security – mitigate postwar violence generally. UN troops have some impact on civilian targeting by former combatants but no such effect could be identified for violence by other armed actors. The findings highlight the importance of peacekeeping police at a time when the modus operandi and capacity of UN police have been questioned, but also the importance of accounting for a multitude of violent actors when analysing the impact of international interventions more generally.

Keeping electoral peace? Activities of United Nations peacekeeping operations and their effects on election-related violence

“…Specifically, investigating election-related activities helps us to understand how PKOs can secure political transitions after war and nuances general critiques of liberal peacekeeping (for an overview, see Paris, 2010). Moreover, the findings add to the growing research on the impact of PKOs on violence that is often below the threshold of war and may not directly mimic the wartime cleavage (Autesserre, 2014;Bara, 2020;Fjelde and Smidt, 2021).…”

“…Recent studies have revealed the significant limitations of peacekeepers in curbing post-war violence that does not mimic the wartime master cleavage, such as crime or local power struggles (e.g. Autesserre, 2014; Bara, 2020; Di Salvatore, 2019). Thus, PKOs’ ability to reduce violence motivated by election dynamics could also be questioned.…”

“…First, the peacekeeping literature largely agrees that PKOs reduce war-related violence (Fortna, 2008;Beardsley, 2011;Hultman et al, 2016). It remains debated, however, whether PKOs mitigate violence that is below the threshold of war and that does not directly mimic the wartime master cleavage (Autesserre, 2014;Bara, 2020;Fjelde and Smidt, 2021). This article contributes to this debate on peacekeeping effects beyond war and provides first systematic evidence on whether and how PKOs help reduce violence related to elections (see Fjelde and Smidt, 2021 for the only other systematic study).…”

Civil war recurrence and postwar violence: Toward an integrated research agenda

“…Hultman et al, 2016). However, this effectiveness in altering the strategic environment in which actors operate may come with new and unforeseen challenges, such as an increase in criminal violence (Salvatore, 2019), or a shift toward different forms of violence or actors (Bara, 2020). Such shifts in the form and perpetrators of violence will remain invisible if we continue to primarily compare individual forms of violence to their absence, rather than to related forms of violence.…”

The Extraordinary Relationship between Peacekeeping and Peace

“…He demonstrates that the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL)a peacekeeping force of over 16,000 military personnel, civilians and police officers, the goal of which was to monitor a ceasefire agreementsignificantly improved governance in that country. Mvukiyehe (2018) also examines UNMIL and finds that citizens were more likely to participate in national politics if they had interacted with this mission, suggesting that positive peacekeeping experiences may strengthen the rule of law (see also Bara 2020). Further research is needed to tease out the precise relationship between peacekeepers and good governance.…”