Shifting velocity of temperature extremes under climate change

Abstract

Rapid changes in climatic conditions threaten both socioeconomic and ecological systems, as these might not be able to adapt or to migrate at the same pace as that of global warming. In particular, an increase of weather and climate extremes can lead to increased stress on human and natural systems, and a tendency for serious adverse effects. Relying on the EURO-CORDEX simulations, we compare the shifting velocities of cold and hot extremes of the screen-level daily mean temperature (T2m), with that of the associated central trends, i.e., the arithmetical mean or median. Defi?ning the extremes relative to the T2m distribution as it evolves in time over the period of 1950-2100, we ?find that temperature extremes shift at a velocity similar to that of the central trends. Indeed, the T2m probability distribution shifts as a whole, as the tails of the distribution increase together with the central trends. Exceptions however occur in specifi?c regions and for the clustering of warm days, which shifts slower than all other extremes investigated in this study.